It is hard to recall now but a couple of months ago when the first betting markets were opened on what then seemed a only possible set of Euro elections in the UK LAB was made the odds-on favourites with the Brexit party on 4/1. Well that has all changed and it is hard to see anything other than Farage’s party heading for a notable victory on May 23rd.
But which party will be in second place? On the face of it that should be Labour yet given its disappointing performance last Thursday in the locals, when everybody was predicting that it was going to win seats when it lost them, there has to be a level of doubt. All is not well at Team Corbyn.
What about the Tories? They have slipped a very long way in the Euros polling but let’s remember 5 years ago when they found themselves 20 points behind Farage’s UKIP at one stage only to finish 3.6% adrift. Could there be a recovery in the blue team’s fortunes? I do think that the Brexit party is being overstated a touch at the moment and the Tores understated but not enough to put the blues in the runner-up position.
What about the newcomers the ChangeUK of which there were so many hopes only 10 weeks ago. It has had some teething troubles over it logo and name and has not quite set the world ablaze in the way that it hoped. Surely this should be the moment for the other new force in British politics as well as the Brexit Party? Maybe not.
That leaves the Lib Dems who did substantially better than anyone had predicted last Thursday and are on something of a roll. They might just have hopes of making second place if they can establish themselves as the main choice amongst that voting segment that wants want to impede Farage. Intriguingly their early literature is making a point of describing Labour as pro-Brexit which is accurate. Second place though might be going too far.
I’m expecting that we might see a betting market like this in the next few days and if so I’d be quite tempted by the Lib Dems at suitable odds. Labour though must be favourites.