Leaving in the July-Dec 2019 period remains favourite but only a 38% one
With two weeks to go before the Euro elections I thought it useful to look at the betting on where Brexit stands at and the market featured is on when it will happen if at all.
This might be wishful thinking on the part of those who wish Brexit won’t ever happen but the betting price on the Brexit timing market featured in the chart above sees punters making at is a 30% chance that it will not take place before 2022 or not at all. It is second favourite behind the July to December 2019 segment which is currently rated as a 38% chance.
Remember these charts are not polling but a reflection of how those ready to risk cash predicting political outcomes see things.
Everything is of course dependent on whether the government can get a meaningful vote on a deal through the House of Commons and as we’ve seen over the last six month that is a massive challenge. There are two blocks of MPs Who are determined not to support that which is currently on the table – the ERG Brexit hardliners and those behind the People’s Vote campaign. There are no signs that either of them are changing their view.
Could the hardliners conclude that any Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
The other possibility is the UK leaving without a deal something that was made illegal in the controversial backench bill passed by MPs by one vote last month. That of itself cannot stop a no deal Brexit. Whether the European leadership would actually decide to kick Britain out without a deal and all the consequences that would mean for both the UK and the 27 countries remain is hard to say.
Theresa May is still fighting to get something through and has now set new deadline of July. Of course this changed timing is all linked with her own position and the desire of many within her party that she move on and another leader takes over. Her talks with Labour appear to have stalled but that might change.
What we don’t know is what the UK political climate will be like after the European election results are declared on March 27th. Will a big showing for Farage’s party impact on things? What if the combined anti-Brexit parties – CHUK/LD/GRN/SNP – do remarkably well?
So lots of uncertainty – the ideal background for betting.