Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race

Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race

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The race looks all over before it starts After PB’s overnight guest slot on the LD leadership there’s been a big move in that the heavily tipped Oxford West & Abingdon MP, Layla Moran, has withdrawn from the race. So the attention now turns to Jo Swinson who decided not to stand two years ago because she had a very young child to care for. She was made deputy to Cable and has been seen a lot more in the…

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Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK

Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK

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A guest slot by The Golden Aspie With the local elections just gone and the European Elections next week we are starting to see a ‘paradigm shift’ in our political landscape. The Conservatives are deeply fratricidal on who should lead them after the inevitability of Theresa’s May departure and what version of Conservatism they should follow. Labour are similarly divided although the chasm is between the Leadership on the one side and the PLP and Members on the other side…

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It is now an 91% chance that TMay will be out this year

It is now an 91% chance that TMay will be out this year

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From Betdata.io chart of Betfair market Aside from the Euro elections next week the other big UK political betting market which has seen a lot of activity is on the date when TMay will finally step aside. After the local elections two weeks ago and the impending disaster for her party a week on Thursday this surely will be the moment when she finally runs out of time. Yet will she? One thing we know is that she isn’t going…

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The CON-LAB polling misery continues

The CON-LAB polling misery continues

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So how's that fence-sitting playing out in London, Mr Corbyn?Well, according to @youGov/@QMUL poll, if there was a general election tomorrow, Londoners would vote: L 35 (down from 49 in December)C23 (33)LD 21 (11)G 7 (3)Brexit 10 (Ukip was 3 in Dec) A beating for Lab & Con — Joe Murphy (@JoeMurphyLondon) May 13, 2019 New London poll finds BRX/LD/GRN rising while the big two slump We are now getting to the stage ahead of the Euro elections next week…

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If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM

If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM

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And the last three years could have been very different With the pressure ratcheting up in the Tory party against TMay it is perhaps worth recalling how she got the job in the first place in July 2016. Boris was the longstanding favourite but pulled out following Michael Gove’s surprise entry into the race. In the MP balloting TMay came top with Andrea Leadsom second. So Leadsom and Theresa May were two names that were to go to the membership. But…

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The biggest barrier to a Tory Leaver succeeding Mrs May might well be other Tory Leavers

The biggest barrier to a Tory Leaver succeeding Mrs May might well be other Tory Leavers

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Quite the story in today's Sunday Times. Steve Baker is 200/1 with BetFred and 150/1 with Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, and SkyBet to succeed Mrs May as next PM. I've decided to back him. Angels and ministers of grace defend us! https://t.co/TFWXzA7eG6 pic.twitter.com/olHIbFk4TD — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 12, 2019 If Steve Baker stands he could damage the chances of a Leaver winning or he might just win My view is that if the Tory Leavers want to ensure of their own succeeds…

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Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

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Expectations management or are the Conservatives really going to finish sixth in the European elections?https://t.co/HmZfRgv4yd — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 11, 2019 Why David Cameron & Theresa May might soon be seen as the modern day H.H. Asquith & David Lloyd George My first instinct to the Guardian story was this is expectations management by the Conservatives, I mean really the Conservatives finishing sixth in a nationwide election? But then I realised the evidence being used here were the arguments I…

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The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls

The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls

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The blues down to 22% with Opininum WM poll Latest Westminster polling numbers from @OpiniumResearch sees the Tories down to just 22%. BREX now in third place just one point behindLAB 28 (-5)CON 22 (-4)BREX 21 (+4)LD 11 (+5) UKIP 4CHUK 4 , — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2019 And for the Euros TMay’s party down to 11% below the LDs New @OpiniumResearch Euro poll has CON slipping into FOURTH placeBREX 34%LAB 21% LD 12% CON 11%GRN 8% UKIP…

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