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The Ladbrokes 7/2 that the LDs will come top in London looks a good value bet

17/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Today’s YouGov/Times Euros poll with a 7k+ sample has LAB on 15% nationally below the LDs who are now second in the race. The Tories on 9% are fifth behind the Greens. All this should help the LDs underpin their claim to be the strongest anti-Brexit party in the three-way battle in England between them and CHUK and the Greens. In Scotland the strongest anti-Brexit party is the SNP and in Wales PC. Looking at the betting the Ladbrokes London…

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The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say so

16/5/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The differences are unbridgeable and any deal unratifiable Like a sketch show parody of a Victorian dinner crossed with Weekend at Bernie’s, the negotiators in the Con-Lab Brexit negotiations have been determined to maintain the pretence that all is still well despite the talks having died some time during the soup course; it’s just that everyone is too polite to say so. That pretence has finally begun to break down as both the realities of the talks themselves and the…

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Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that he’s running and moves to a 27% favourite in the betting

16/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange So the CON backbenchers who have been unhappy with Mrs May’s handling of the brexit process have sort of got their way and there is agreed process for how she will go and when. The 1922 Chair Graham Brady summed up things like this:- “We have agreed to meet to decide the timetable for the election of a new leader of the Conservative party as soon as the second reading has occurred…

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The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

16/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What is very marked is the high level of variation between the firm’s most recent surveys. Change UK are recorded as being in a range of 2-6% The Brexit Party from 26% to 34% LDs from 11% to 19% GRN from 6% to 11% The Tories are in a much narrower range of 10% to 15%. The possibly outlying figures from BMG might be down to the fact that in its poll the Euros voting intention was put first. With…

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The Conservative party sweepstake

15/5/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The last rites have not yet been spoken and already the heirs are gathered around the deathbed and stripping the rings off Theresa May’s fingers. The collective assumption of most Conservative MPs, which may yet be wrong, is that the Conservative role of party leader is shortly to fall vacant. Who might her replacement be? For all the difficulties that the role has, there is no shortage of volunteers. Many Conservative MPs look in the mirror, straighten themselves up, comb…

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If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

15/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Dealing with turnout is very challenging One of the common criticisms of pollsters in recent years is that they have a tendency to herd particularly as we get closer to elections. Well for sure that’s one thing that isn’t happening this time. With just a week and one day to go the above chart shows the Brexit party lead in the most recent polls and as can be seen there is a huge gap between the figures from YouGov and…

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It’s now just possible to contemplate that my 32p Euros bet at 990/1 might just be a winner

15/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

BMG Euros poll for the Indy hasBXP 26%LAB 22%LD 19%CON 12%GRN 10%CUK 3%So the LDs just 7 points behind BXP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2019 Just before the local elections I offered political punters on the Betfair exchange Euro election that I’d bet £2 on the LDs at 990 to win most seats in the Euros. This was pure speculation and something I often do. Normally there are no takers but in this came someone came forward and…

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What happens to CHUK if it fails to win more a couple of MEPs a week on Thursday?

14/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If it can’t make progress under Euro elections voting system then its surely doomed I have just received my freepost delivery of the CHUK Euros leaflet and I reproduce the pages that have words on it above. I’m sure many PBers will have seen it as well. What is striking is how weak the leaflet with hardly any effort to try to persuade people to vote. Is it it is almost as if it has given up already. The freepost…

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