PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

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Only the second GB by-election of the parliament The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn, who gained the seat in 1987 from the Conservatives, was always going to be held in the shadow of Brexit. Chris Hanratty’s estimates shows that the constituency voted LEAVE by 53% to 47% and the council area voted LEAVE by 56% to 44%, but there is more, much more to Newport than how it voted in the referendum, so let’s take…

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The British Trump – the similarities between the President and the Leader of the Opposition

The British Trump – the similarities between the President and the Leader of the Opposition

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On the eve of the 2016 US Presidential election Charlie Falconer, in Italy giving a tour d’horizon of politics to a group of distinguished lawyers, said he thought that Trump would win – it felt a lot like Brexit. He was resigned to it. And right. Farage wasted no time in getting himself photographed with Trump boasting about his special relationship with him. Yet, 3 years on, arguably it is another British politician who has a better claim to be the…

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Selling time. What passes for Theresa May’s strategy

Selling time. What passes for Theresa May’s strategy

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Picture credit: Sunil Prasannan We spend all our lives buying and selling time. We sell our time to employers. We trade time for convenience when deciding where we live and what we are prepared to pay for that. Oddly, we talk of buying time but we never talk of selling time, even though we do both. This is a gap in the English language. For the last few months that has been all that Theresa May has been doing. After Theresa…

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Why punters have got it right making a 2019 general election a 45% chance

Why punters have got it right making a 2019 general election a 45% chance

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Following the latest developments in the Commons it is clear that the house as currently constituted is going to be troublesome for the prime minister whoever he or she is for as long as we don’t have a general election. Theresa May’s decision in April two years ago to go early to the country has proved to be something of a disaster and if indeed she had achieved what she was hoping to do then the parliamentary arithmetic would have…

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On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chance on Monday to a 21% chance now

On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chance on Monday to a 21% chance now

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Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io How TMay’s speech last night impacted on the betting The top UK political betting market at the moment is the above one on whether there is actually going to be a no deal brexit in 2019. The chart is based on the Betfair Exchange where the bookmaker does not set the odds but punters are trading with each other. The big message from Theresa May’s dramatic invitation to Jeremy Corbyn yesterday evening was that…

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Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

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Harry Hayfield’s March 2019 Local By-Election Summary Labour 6,624 votes (32% unchanged on last time) winning 6 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservatives 5,024 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 3,626 votes (17% +4% on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,641 votes (8% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Independents 1,154 votes (6% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat…

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So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections

So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections

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This could be good branding for possible Euro elections One of he potentially big developments that came out at the end of last week was the decision by the Independent Group to seek registration as an official party under the name of  Change UK. The grouping, of course, features the LAB MPs who left Corbyn’s party in February followed by the three women Tory MPs who left their party a few days later. It is the only grouping that has…

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The Brexit deadlock: Some group has got to shift bit it is not clear who that will be

The Brexit deadlock: Some group has got to shift bit it is not clear who that will be

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Who is going to fold first? After another deadlocked day at Westminster the time is running out before the April 12th deadline and if the UK is not to slip out of the EU then without a deal then some grouping has got to change their previously set out strong position. Let’s start with the EU itself. Will it hold to it’s now extension from the April 12th without a firm plan from the UK or will it actually relent…

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