Never before has a party membership chosen a PM
We are now at a unique stage in British political history when the members of a particular party will by postal ballot decide who the next prime minister shall be. The decisions that members will take are of a different magnitude from other party leadership contests.
So we need to see new “final two” CON member polling to establish whether there has been any shift now that we know which two are going to be slugging it out. It might be that because there is an established alternative that might harden up the 30+ ratings that Hunt has been getting. Any polling movement amongst the 160k who are eligible to vote will lead to a sharp reaction in the betting.
Then there are the two televised debates and the hustings meeting where Johnson’s broad brush approach might lead to him being tripped up which again could impact on the betting markets.
Thirdly there are all those stories about Boris himself. Maybe there might be something that hits home and raises doubts.
My main bet for this final phase has been to lay Johnson at 1.09 and be ready to cash in on any price movement away from the current very strong position.
This is not to say that he won’t do it but that there are plenty of occasions and events where we could see movement and I want to be in a position to trade if the opportunity arises.