Meanwhile in the leadership battle in the party that won four times as many MEPs and more than twice the CON vote last month

Meanwhile in the leadership battle in the party that won four times as many MEPs and more than twice the CON vote last month

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Inevitably the Tory leadership contest is totally dwarfing coverage of other political developments including the battle for the leadership of the party that totally out-performed the Tories in last month’s Euro elections. Yet given the parliamentary situation the outcome of this postal members’ ballot could be crucial. Last night I attended a hustings in London, sponsored by the New Statesman and hosted by its political editor,  Stephen Bush. There are two candidates both of whom were ministers during the coalition…

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It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

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The signs are that today will see the writ being moved for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election to fill the vacancy created by the success of the recall petition that has seen the sitting Conservative MP, Chris Davies, forced out of his seat. This follows his conviction and sentencing for expenses fraud. The date looks set to be August 1st bang in the middle of the holiday season. Extraordinarily it was confirmed yesterday that Mr Davies has been selected as…

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The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

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Professor Brian Cox was once asked to explain string theory in a sentence. His answer: “It’s probably not true.” The same one sentence explanation could be used to explain the theory that the next Conservative leader might not become Prime Minister. But since it’s being talked about quite a bit, let’s have a look at why. The current Parliament was elected at a general election held on 8 June 2017. It resulted in a hung Parliament. It is forgotten now,…

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A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros

A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros

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Well at least they couldn’t be accused of clustering With the Tory leadership race taking place and the unique situation where party members will be electing a new PM there’s increasing focus on the polls and the possibility that the new leader could seek to call a general election. One thing I’ve been meaning to do since the May 23rd Euros is to record here how the pollsters did in their final surveys compared with the actual result. This is…

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If the CON race continues to be about character them it might be a lot closer than anybody thought

If the CON race continues to be about character them it might be a lot closer than anybody thought

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When at the launch of the Boris campaign a fortnight ago the Sky journalist, Beth Rigby, sought to raise the question of character she got loudly booed by many of those attending. It was the same yesterday at the the first hustings in Birmingham when Iain Dale sought to raise the issue that’s been dominating the news with Johnson. This didn’t come over well on TV. Yet that is now what the campaign is becoming about and it is hard…

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Johnson’s position is holding up well on the betting markets where he’s now an 82% chance to succeed TMay

Johnson’s position is holding up well on the betting markets where he’s now an 82% chance to succeed TMay

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange movements Political punters, those who risk their cash trying to predict political outcomes, haven’t changed their view of Johnson’s chances of becoming the next CON leader and PM and is still a solid odds-on favourite to succeed TMay. The events of Thursday night and what’s happened since have had an impact, as can be seen by the chart, but not that much. Those gambling on Betfair £11m TMay succession market don’t think it will impact…

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Happy anniversary. Brexit three years on from the referendum

Happy anniversary. Brexit three years on from the referendum

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Year four in the Big Brexit house and the housemates are not getting any happier. The referendum vote saw off one Prime Minister immediately and a second is shortly to be evicted from Number 10 before Britain has left the EU. It’s entirely possible that Theresa May’s replacement might be ousted before Brexit is implemented too. Before contemplating the fate of the next Conservative leader, let’s start by looking at how the country is shaping up now. It’s not looking…

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The voters are beginning to see that Boris Johnson is not the Messiah but a very naughty boy

The voters are beginning to see that Boris Johnson is not the Messiah but a very naughty boy

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Polling June 19-20 included Conservative leadership head to heads featuring Boris Johnson vs Jeremy Hunt. This was repeated in another poll conducted today, between 1pm and 5pm. pic.twitter.com/8yRWHVRVFL — Survation. (@Survation) June 22, 2019 Will those Tory members who decide will recoil from Boris Johnson given recent events? The Mail on Sunday says Boris Johnson’s bust-up with girlfriend Carrie Symonds has handed a shock poll lead to his leadership rival Jeremy Hunt. Two exclusive surveys by this newspaper – one…

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