TMay makes most of the front pages this morning as reports continue of efforts to oust her

TMay makes most of the front pages this morning as reports continue of efforts to oust her

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But she’s not going, surely, before the Euros? Given the fact that we could be seeing two separate sets of elections next month, the locals on May 2nd and the Euros on May 23rd it is hard to see how TMay a can be pushed out before then. In many way her challenges are not of her own making. It was her predecessor who committed the Tories to a referendum and the 51.9%-48.1% outcome was hardly a mandate for some…

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Not before 2022 or not at all now betting favourite for when Brexit happens

Not before 2022 or not at all now betting favourite for when Brexit happens

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange After another day of Brexit developments punters on the Betfair exchange now make 2022 or not all all the favourite as to when Brexit will happen. The chart shows the movements over the past months. But, as can be seen, the second half of 2019 is close behind. The actual rules of the market are: “For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties…

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Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

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The 2019 Euro elections – not a contest I thought was going to require a British perspective. Yet here we are, taking at least one more curtain call. Last time Britain elected MEPs in the following numbers: UKIP 24 Labour 20 Conservatives 19 Green 3 SNP 2 Lib Dems 1 Plaid Cymru 1 DUP 1 Sinn Fein 1 UUP 1 UKIP tallied 26.6% of the vote to take first place on a turnout of just under 36%. It should be…

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Cooper-Letwin, forcing Article 50 to be delayed, is enacted and adds to the constraints on TMay

Cooper-Letwin, forcing Article 50 to be delayed, is enacted and adds to the constraints on TMay

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The backbench bill that went through in three days Overnight the Queen signed what’s become known as the Cooper-Letwin measures thus making it now the law that TMay cannot take the UK out of the EU without a deal. The terms of the extension have to be agreed with Brussels. On Saturday David Herdson argued here that this measure has “probably killed Brexit”. With one more deadline, April 12th, now looming TMay is once again off on her travels trying…

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Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in the 2019 Euro Elections

Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in the 2019 Euro Elections

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange This Tweet seems to confirm Members of the approved list of Tory candidates have been told in an email from CCHQ that the UK "will" be contesting EU elections on May 23rd — Patrick Maguire (@patrickkmaguire) April 8, 2019 So the chances of the UK participating in the May 23rd euro elections seems to have increased sharply during the day based on information coming out of Brussels. The real interesting feature is…

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LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

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LAB’s fighting 77% of the seats compared with the Tories’ 96% One of the things that Corbynistas always take great pride in is the number of members who have been attracted to the party since Corbyn’s victory in the 2015 leadership election. With a reported 500k+ the red team is four or five times bigger than the blue one. One the face of it you would assume that this would reflect itself at election time particularly local ones where turnout…

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Changing the subject – our first look at the May 2nd local elections

Changing the subject – our first look at the May 2nd local elections

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Will feelings about Corbyn and TMay impact on activists? Somewhat overshadowed by the ongoing brexit saga we will get a further chance to test the political temperature in this year’s local elections which take place on May 2nd – three weeks on from Thursday. Nominations closed before the weekend. Because London is not involved then expect less media coverage than normal but the seats at stake, covering almost all of England outside the capital, represent the biggest wave in the…

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Longstanding Brexiteer, Peter Oborne, says now is not the time to leave the EU

Longstanding Brexiteer, Peter Oborne, says now is not the time to leave the EU

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Will this be influential over the next crucial few days? The prominent right wing commentator and strong Brexiter, Peter Oborne, has published an article raising doubts and some powerfil arguments over whether now is the right time to leave. Among his key points:- “I was a strong Brexiteer. Now we must swallow our pride and think again The economic arguments for Brexit have been destroyed by a series of shattering blows Britain’s departure from the EU will be as great…

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