Old White Man Mispriced In 2020 Presidential Election – a 140/1 shot that’s surely worth a punt

Old White Man Mispriced In 2020 Presidential Election – a 140/1 shot that’s surely worth a punt

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So… there’s an old white man, whose 2020 Presidential election price on Betfair is wrong. Perhaps very significantly wrong. And no, I’m not talking about Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump or Joe Biden. I’m talking about the Vice President, Mike Pence. On Betfair right now, he’s currently at 150-1. The traditional bookies have him at 100/1. Yeah, you might say, but Mueller’s over, and Trump’s not getting impeached. And his favourable numbers with Republicans are off the charts. So, why…

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The best test of a pollster is not how they’re currently doing against other firms but what happened last time they were tested

The best test of a pollster is not how they’re currently doing against other firms but what happened last time they were tested

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I am afraid that I have to disagree with David Herdson on his latest Saturday thread about YouGov understating Labour. Firstly you cannot judge pollsters’ based on their current surveys when less than 5 weeks ago they were tested against a real election involving real voters. In the two charts above I compare LAB and LD vote shares for the May Euros in their final published polls.  Just two of them can claim to have come out of the election…

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If Boris Johnson tries to deliver on his promise of a no deal Brexit on Halloween then a parliamentary vote of no confidence seems inevitable

If Boris Johnson tries to deliver on his promise of a no deal Brexit on Halloween then a parliamentary vote of no confidence seems inevitable

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‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim. If Boris Johnson does attempt to take the country out of the EU without a deal (and in contradiction to his claims during the 2016 referendum campaign) then I expect…

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The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have to make

The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have to make

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You need to watch politics in split-screen at the moment. In both Labour and the Conservatives, a group of politicians has come to a fork in the road. In both cases, there is no shortage of fellow party supporters telling them to fork off. Conservative Remainers have had a desperate few years. The referendum result was not the start of it. Well before they lost the referendum, they had lost their party. They have spent the last three years seeking…

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In Brecon and Radnorshire the Remain parties are united and the big battle is between the pro-Brexit ones

In Brecon and Radnorshire the Remain parties are united and the big battle is between the pro-Brexit ones

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Letter to B&R voters from ex-CON MP Chris Davies The start of a new politics? A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats who, of course, held the seat until GE2015. So unlike other previous elections there will be a single remain choice. Meanwhile, as can be seen from the Chris Davies…

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The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?

The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?

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Wikipedia A clear lead or struggling to be neck-and-neck? Three parties have dominated the coverage of opinion polling and major elections over the last three months. On one side, the Tories have clearly suffered a catastrophic loss, shedding more than half the support they had at the start of the year, losing more than 1300 councillors and then nearly all their MEPs in May. Against which, the Brexit Party has exploded out of nowhere to win the EP elections and…

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Latest Polling Matters podcast on the US Democratic debate reaction & more on Hunt vs Johnson

Latest Polling Matters podcast on the US Democratic debate reaction & more on Hunt vs Johnson

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On this week’s Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to discuss the latest developments in the race to face Donald Trump in 2020 following this week’s Democratic debates. Later in the show, Keiran looks at the most recent public opinion numbers on Hunt vs Johnson. Listen to the podcast here Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @aedwardslevy Tweet

WH2020 could be the election that the US finally chooses a woman

WH2020 could be the election that the US finally chooses a woman

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A look at the Presidential gender betting Over the past couple of nights we had the first tv debates of the battle in the Democratic party to secure the nomination for next year’s White House election to come up presumably against Donald Trump . One factor that is very striking is that the two contenders who most stood out were women. They are Senators Elizabeth Warren (16% on Betfair) of Massachusetts, clear victor on Wednesday evening, and Kamala Harris (25%…

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