The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%

The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The main betting mover on another day of high drama on brexit has been on the when will the Commons pass a brexit vote market. Before PMQs this was rated as a 26.8% chance and then with what Theresa May said and other indications this has now gone to 43%. There seems to be increasing confidence that Theresa May’s long term strategy of getting her deal because the alternatives are worse through…

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Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is doing so again

Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is doing so again

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“Oh what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive.” Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades. A list of all its self-deceptions would be interminable but here are some:- The Common Market will never get off the ground / be important. We can set up or belong to a rival organisation. We don’t need to belong. We do need to belong and they will be desperate to have us. We are joining a market…

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Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brexit happens

Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brexit happens

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange So much potentially could happen in the ten  days that remain between now and March 29th it is inevitable that there has been an enormous amount of movement on this Betfair  market on when Brexit will actually happen. As can be seen Q2 2019 has dropped very sharply in the last few days partly in response to the difficulty Mrs May has had in getting support for her deal and partly due…

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Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

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Why the US betting support? The 2020 US Presidential Market is gathering steam right now with most of the top-tier Democratic possibles having announced their candidature. Just waiting on Joe Biden who has recently become favourite for the nomination at Ladbrokes. No doubt his price will drop a little further if and when he announces, but the bigger impact on the overall market would be if he says no. Oddly though, the biggest loser with Ladbrokes would be someone who…

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You can’t blame Bercow for enforcing what is a sensible precedent

You can’t blame Bercow for enforcing what is a sensible precedent

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The real problem is the totally divided Tory Party The speaker, John Bercow, as you’d expect, gets a lot of stick from the right wing press this morning following his ruling yesterday stopping the tabling of the government motion for a third time. Sure a consequence of it is that it might make Brexit happening a tad less likely and that might be what Mr Bercow himself  wants. If he did go wrong, I’d suggest, it was not blocking last…

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While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

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And if you haven’t seen this MAY: You're SURE it's gone?GRAYLING: DefinitelyMAY: You know 100% that the Article 50 revocation fax was sent?GRAYLING: Oh yesMAY: Phew because it's 00:01GRAYLING: I did it personallyMAY: Wait… what?! <in Brussels> JUNKER: What is this?BARNIER: A picture of an envelope — John Bull (@garius) March 18, 2019 The main overnight Brexit news Brexit latest: Theresa May drawing up letter to Donald Tusk to formally request one 9-12 month Brexit delay, but with an escape…

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Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

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It’s looking more like TMay will have to ask for more time So another day and more uncertainty over what is going to happen over brexit just 11 days away from the March 29th article 50 deadline. The Commons speaker, John Bercow, ruled in the house this afternoon that the government could not bring the deal plan back to the house for a further vote. He was applying the the rule that in any one session The Commons can only…

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