The first morning of the official campaign period in three Tweets

The first morning of the official campaign period in three Tweets

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Not the finest hour for these two senior Tories. I'm sure their opponents on December 12th will have noticed. https://t.co/m56aDCAJPk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2019 Our second edition ?@EveningStandard? as Cabinet Minister resigns over rape trial scandal on first day of official Tory campaign pic.twitter.com/NLWNX0HbtM — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) November 6, 2019 More terrible leader ratings for Corbyn from Ipsos-MORI. A huge 75% of voters dissatisfied with him and just 15% satisfied. Johnson up sharply from last month…

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A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain

A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain

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How many are ready to back Swinson’s party? One sizeable group of the electorate who could make a difference on December 12th are those who have voted Conservative in the past who at the referendum went for remain. It’s estimated that this segment accounted for more than a quarter of the Conservative vote at the last general election. The question now is whether they will want to continue supporting the party under the management of Boris Johnson which is devoid…

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Constituency betting round-up

Constituency betting round-up

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Sitting MP Anne Milton now to stand as an Independent in Guildford. pic.twitter.com/2ubZ7vAqNo — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5, 2019 Independent candidate @ClaireWrightInd is only 6/4 to win East Devon. pic.twitter.com/KHvcxDRMDo — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5, 2019 Flip-flop in Fife as Lib Dems take over as favourites to win ultra-marginal seat. pic.twitter.com/w4593JNo48 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5, 2019 The Liberal Democrats are 6/1 to unseat Jacob Rees-Mogg in North East Somerset. pic.twitter.com/tWuxIeskau — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5,…

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If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set to make gains from LAB in London

If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set to make gains from LAB in London

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Westminster voting changes from today's YouGov London poll suggest the Tories could make gains from LAB in the capital Changes since GE2017: Lab -16%CON -4%LD +10%BRX +6%GRN +2% Swing 6% from Lab to Con — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2019 And terrible ratings for the LAB leader in his home city London has for so long been such a stronghold for Labour that it can be hard to come to terms with the fact that on December 12th it…

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The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

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And they’re off.  The Conservatives have raced into an early lead in the polls and will be looking to secure an overall majority. Will they do it? Here are ten seats that will be illustrative of how they will do.   Cheltenham Long-held by the Lib Dems, the Conservatives took Cheltenham in 2015. This constituency was “won” by Remain something like 57:43. It’s a very clear Lib Dem target, though its current MP Alex Chalk himself supported Remain and has opposed…

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So, how will the LibDems do?

So, how will the LibDems do?

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A forecast from Robert Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts. Currently the LDs are polling about 16-17%, which is about five points down on the peak they achieved after the European elections earlier this year. I think there’s around a 40% chance that they end up in the 14-19% range at the coming elections. I reckon there’s…

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YouGov boost for Swinson in the TV debates row

YouGov boost for Swinson in the TV debates row

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By two to one those polled think she should attend Further to this morning’s thread on the exclusion of LD leader Jo Swinson from the ITV General Election debate there’s now a YouGov poll carried out today that points to her desire to be there getting support from the public. Clearly LD voters are most supportive of her presence as the chart shows but there’s strong backing from LAB voters as well and CON ones back her by a small…

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If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB seats they won’t choose Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker

If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB seats they won’t choose Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker

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Today’s big election is the voting by MPs on which of them should be the next Speaker to succeed John Bercow. The strong odds-on betting favourite is the current deputy, Lindsay Hoyle MP for the Lancashire seat of Chorley. One factor that might work against Hoyle is that his seat could be regarded as a target for the Tories. Back in 2010 LAB held it with a margin of just 5.2% which means it would have gone on a 2.6%…

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