How many are ready to back Swinson’s party?
One sizeable group of the electorate who could make a difference on December 12th are those who have voted Conservative in the past who at the referendum went for remain. It’s estimated that this segment accounted for more than a quarter of the Conservative vote at the last general election.
The question now is whether they will want to continue supporting the party under the management of Boris Johnson which is devoid of many of the one nation Conservatives who have been so influential in the past.
That list has been growing almost by the day and includes very major figures like Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, and Philip Hammond. They no longer feel they can be part of the vision that Johnson/Cummings (the latter not even a party member) want for the Conservatives.
Several of the now former MPs including Cabinet ministers, have hinted that their vote on election day will go to the Liberal Democrats. This has been helped by LD moves such as in Beaconsfield – the seat of the former Attorney General Dominic grieve. He is being given a free run by the Lib Dems not putting up a candidate against him.
What is very noticeable about Jo Swinson is the ongoing repetition of the line that she would never back Corbyn for Prime Minister because he is unfit for the office. This is a message that has specific resonance for former and potential recruits from the Conservatives to reassure them that they would not be helping put the LAB leader into Number 10.
There’s very little specific polling on GE17 Tory remainers. The only pollster that regularly provides a breakdown is Opinium and its data has been used to prepare my chart above.