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Labour’s general election plan on Brexit- it looks as though the fudge will continue

22/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 469 Comments

Surely a clear position is required? As well as the side shows of the move against Watson that were pulled and the top Corbyn advisor who has quit the the big story about behind the secenes in Brighton appears to have been the policy, or non-policy, on Brexit. We know where Johnson’s Tories stand and Swinson’s LDs but if you are looking for clarity from what is currently the official opposition then you are probably going to be disappointed. Somewhat…

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Chronicle of a bet foretold Part 2

22/9/2019 TSE Comments 490 Comments

It is 11am on September 21st 2019 as I write this. Earlier in the year I wrote an article about fixed-odds betting used to insure against political risk. I finished by saying I would investigate other modes, specifically currency conversion. This is that investigation. PREAMBLE The investigation took the form of recollections of previous betting combined with consideration of new modes. Time constraints meant that some modes could only be briefly examined so conclusions from this article should be taken…

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Labour’s leadership machinations could be a pointer that an early change is being planned

21/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 418 Comments

So far I have not been tempted to take the Betfair 26% that Corbyn will step down as LAB leader during 2019. But an early exit for Mr Corbyn is how some of the machinations ahead of the party conference both last night and this morning are being interpreted. Why the party had to change its position on a move that seemed to be about abolishing the role of deputy leader as a means of clipping Watson’s wings we do…

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The hurricane on Labour’s horizon

21/9/2019 David Herdson Comments 478 Comments

Labour can’t rely on election campaign miracles every time As Labour gathers for its annual attempt to spread a veneer of forced goodwill over ruthless power-plays, rather like a Game of Thrones family Christmas, they ought to be asking a rather different introspective question than ‘how does Momentum increase its control?’. They should be asking ‘how do we get out of this disastrous polling position?’. They almost certainly won’t. Because the truth is that Labour’s polling position – buttressed by…

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Mayor of London Siobhan Benita? Don’t rule it out

20/9/2019 David Herdson Comments 385 Comments

SV means the Lib Dems could pull off something extraordinary In the absence of big names and big characters, London politics has dropped off the media radar a bit. After the controversial Ken Livingstone and the future PM Boris Johnson, Sadiq Khan has been – spats with Donald Trump aside – a lower-profile mayor. Khan’s term ends, however, in less than eight months, when he’ll bid for re-election. Until recently, this was all-but assured. The Tory candidate, Shaun Bailey, looks…

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Corbyn’s Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings drop to the lowest for an opposition leader since it started in 1977

20/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 267 Comments

NEW @IpsosMORI / @standardnews Jeremy Corbyn's leader satisfaction rating falls to worst ever achieved by a leader of the opposition in our series – dating back to 1977. Satisfied 16%Dissatisfied 76%Net -60 pic.twitter.com/MYGNDpfghz — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) September 20, 2019 Hardly the platform for an election campaign Ipsos-MORI, has been polling UK politics since 1977, and throughout that time has been asking in exactly the same manner if those sampled are satisfied/dissatisfied with a range of political leaders. We had…

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The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the confidence of the Commons and should have quit when the Benn bill passed

20/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 429 Comments

Anne Twomey, who literally wrote the book on the prerogative, has written an important blog post that cuts through much of the legal machinations: When is prorogation ‘improper’?https://t.co/GR7rMJ6Gkt The answer: if the government is seeking to avoid a vote of no confidence — Jack Simson Caird (@jasimsoncaird) September 19, 2019 The blog post above, which is well worth reading in full, from a leading academic expert on the prerogative articulates something which has not really been taken up before. The…

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New Democrat nominee polling finds Warren’s generates the most enthusiasm

19/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 297 Comments

In general almost all the Democratic nominee polling that we’ve seen this year has had 76 year old Joe Biden in the lead. This has been a been underpinned by the findings that he’s seen as the one most likely to beat Trump. Even so it is being suggested that his position is not as strong as it might appear. The growing doubts about the former VP are basically because of ongoing gaffes, his age and little things…

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