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The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go dark before 4pm

12/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One voter says she was queuing for 35 minutes ? #GE2019 https://t.co/p8USmaBLyV — Evening Standard (@standardnews) December 12, 2019 On Betfair punters moving away from a CON majority which was an 80% chance. Chart via @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/y5wLbQm8GZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2019 CON seats buy on the @sportingindex spreads drops below 340https://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/kzGRNQPEbg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2019

General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

12/12/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

10.00pm GMT December 12th 2019 The Exit Poll This is what will frame the entire election night. If the exit poll says more than 335 Conservative MP’s (Con maj 20+) then every single Conservative will say “It is only an exit poll, but given the accuracy of the past three exit polls, I think it is clear that our core message of “Get Brexit Done” has resonated with the British people and we can now enact the referendum result of…

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The final polls – almost

11/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Unless there’s another polling disaster Johnson is heading for a workable majority

Getting Brexit Done

11/12/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Past performance is not a guide to the future. A caveat plastered all over investment products which might usefully be remembered by those anxiously scanning polls or those politicians explaining why the PM’s success in getting a revised Withdrawal Agreement means that he can reach an FTA with the EU before the transition period ends in 385 days time. The steps needed to reach an FTA have not featured much in the election campaign, despite this being meant (once again!)…

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Punters on CON & the LDs are more bullish than the MRP projections while punters on LAB much less so

11/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Tories drop two overnight on the Commons seat spread markets following the @YouGov MRP findingshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/8rT1Jqrs7X — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2019 The betting markets have now had time to assimilate the YouGov MRP projections and it is interesting to compare the current spreads with what was published last night. The spread on LD seats is out of line with the estimate of 15 seats from YouGov. As can be seen the latest spread has then at 18 SELL…

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Amy Klobuchar coming up strongly in Iowa and now within striking distance of the top 4

11/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Emerson IOWA poll BIDEN 23%Sanders 22%Buttigieg 18%Warren 12%Klobuchar 10% All else <5 https://t.co/vZTj4f3KaB — Bill Scher (@billscher) December 11, 2019 My 760/1 WH2020 shot enters the frame My apologies for going off the GE2020 message but for me personally this morning the biggest betting news is this latest poll from Iowa showing that my wild longshot for WH2020, Amy Klobuchar, has now moved up sharply in the Iowa polling and looks set to become a serious contender in the first state…

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A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the Tory majority halved to 28

10/12/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

NEW YouGov MRP Conservative majority of 28 CON 339 (+22)LAB 231 (-31)SNP 41 (+6) LIB 15 (+3) https://t.co/57PHLcUoOK — Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) December 10, 2019 YouGov / Sky News final MRP Headlines ** Tory Majority projected at 28, down from 68** The margin of error means YouGov cannot rule out a hung Parliament** Lab back ahead in Weaver Vale and Watson seat of West Bromwich East — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) December 10, 2019 YouGov / Sky News final MRP…

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New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to vote tactically

10/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With tactical voting likely to play a big part on Thursday YouGov has just published some new polling showing that overall a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice. That seems a high figure and reflects the way the GE2019 narrative has revolved. For many Brexit is the overwhelming issue and many appear ready to switch to the party they dislike in order to have the maximum impact. A lot, of course, depends on…

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