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New YouGov polling finds firm backing for final Brexit decisions to be made by a referendum

3/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 420 Comments

Not a good polling backdrop for “People versus Parliament” In the panel above from new YouGov polling published this afternoon there is clear support for a final referendum on a deal or if nothing can be agreed a no deal. This fits in with other polling that we have seen from other pollsters. It is going to be hard politically to drive through something based on the June 2016 referendum. That was then this is now and voters know much…

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Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination

3/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 449 Comments

Two national polls and a couple of state surveys in the last 2-days have shown that Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is heading the field, by a clear margin, in the fight to be the Democratic nominee in next year’s White House Race. This is a big change for until now the former VP, Joe Biden, had dominated just about all the surveys. She has been helped by the illness of Bernie Sanders who might have to pull out of…

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The front pages after Johnson’s big conference speech

3/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 478 Comments

Surprisingly the two biggest circulation and arguably most influential politically papers, the Mail and the Sun, do not make in their lead. The former ignores it completely on its front page. Quite what we can read into that I don’t know. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how voters view the referendum decision

2/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 506 Comments

The 9% Brexit wrong gap is one of the biggest seen since 2016 This is YouGov’s tracker which has been asked least twice a month since the referendum in June 2016. The format of the question has been unchanged and in the early day just about all the findings had Brexit being “right”. That changed in late 2017/q18 and so far this year Brexit “right” has trailed. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo moment”?

2/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 640 Comments

Ladbrokes A prominent Brexiteer in a strong Remain seat The Foreign Secretary and former CON leadership contender, Dominic Raab, has been a rising star in the Tory party and now holds one of the top seats in Johnson’s cabinet. He’s also a strong Brexiteer. There’s nothing wrong with that except that his seat, Esher and Walton, borders the SW London Lib Dem seats of Twickenham and Kingston and at the referendum in 2016 the votes split 41.57% Leave to 58.43%…

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Once again the betting moves to the general election taking place later rather than sooner

2/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 432 Comments

Chart betdata.io My money’s on 2020 or beyond For those who have followed the general election timing market this has become a familiar theme. The money moves to what appears to be the first possible month and then after a short period as betting favourite time appears to be running out and so we move onto the next option. Currently December 2019 is the favourite but apart from all the issues of holding an election in the run-up to Christmas,…

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New YouGov polling on party Brexit awareness highlights the challenges facing LAB

1/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 472 Comments

With the coming general election looking set to be a battle between parties that back Leave and and those that back Remain this YouGov polling on perceptions of the Brexit stance of each party looks be a good pointer. As can be seen Johnson/Cummings have made progress with Leave voters that the Tories are pro-Brexit a finding that could be important given the Farage pitch of “we are more pure on Brexit than Johnson” My guess, however, is that on…

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Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

1/10/2019 TSE Comments 713 Comments

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168479741491462144 Leavers have an apparently compelling pair of arguments. Certainly, those arguments completely satisfy them. First, they argue that everyone agreed that the referendum result would be implemented. Secondly, they argue that the wording on the ballot paper was clear, and that all that is required is for Britain to leave the EU. So, what’s the hold-up? It would be churlish to take issue with these arguments. So let me be that churl. For those two arguments are mutually contradictory….

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