— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2019
The betting markets have now had time to assimilate the YouGov MRP projections and it is interesting to compare the current spreads with what was published last night.
The spread on LD seats is out of line with the estimate of 15 seats from YouGov. As can be seen the latest spread has then at 18 SELL and 22 BUY. My guess is that this is reflecting the impact of the series of single seat polls from Deltapoll and Survation with the possibility of nicking a few seats by tactical voting.
The MRP 339 seat projection for the Tories is just within the 338 SELL – 344 BUY range from Sporting Index. You’d expect the MRP to be at about the midpoint which it is not.
The biggest oddity here is LAB where the MRP is projecting 231 seats. That compares with the 218 SELL and 224 BUY from Sporting Index. If we believe that the MRP is along the right track then buying ar 224 would seem a good bet.
The big thing now that could change perceptions are the final voting intention polls from just about all the pollsters. These are numbers that they will be judged on and there is an awful lot of nervousness about.