Wikipedia list of latest polling with the latest, from ICM, showing LAB the closest pic.twitter.com/sDwy6TZAxQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019 Tory seats up 4 on last night on the @sportingindex Commons seats spread markethttps://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/TMKBAPq9Tp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019
The final few days of Betfair betting in June 2017 Remember Kinnock at GE1992 It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves what happened last time and how the received opinion of those who risk their money betting on politics got it totally wrong. At exactly this point, 9.20am on the Tuesday beforehand, a CON majority traded at 81% on Betfair. Over the next two and half days it was to go even higher only for things to be brought back to…
Vladimir Bukovsky died recently, in the country he called home after his 1976 expulsion from Russia. He was one of the last Russian dissidents from a time when concerns about Russia related not to its interference in Western elections or its financial links with Western leaders but about the spread of its Communist ideology, its brutal control of Eastern Europe, its appalling treatment of those who protested (incarceration as “insane” in psychiatric jails) or those who wanted to leave (Russian…
CON seats on the spreads up 5 SportingIndex On Betfair CON majority now a 75% chance It has been a good final Monday on the betting markets for Johnson’s Tories with punters becoming increasingly convinced that the PM will achieve his objective of securing an overall majority. This mood is inevitably reflected in the detailed single seats markets where there might be bargains to be had. In polling terms the latest surveys have the CON lead between 6% (ICM) and…
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I’ve written before about Jeremy Corbyn’s personal ratings difficulties, and they did not improve in the following months. In September and October of 2019, he racked up satisfaction ratings of -60, the lowest any Leader of the Opposition has rated since Ipsos-Mori started polling it in 1977 (snatching the record from Michael Foot). In October that came from satisfied a rating of 15%, the third lowest rating on record (narrowly losing out to William Hague in June of 1997 and…
On the latest PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask ‘who has had a good or bad campaign?’ and crucially ‘Will there be a hung parliament?’ Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
Jeremy Corbyn came to the Labour leadership contest as an outsider and was elected as a revolution, a rejection of Blairite centrism and a return to socialism. It was a choice to try to find and rally latent support on the left as a path to victory rather than trying to occupy the centre-ground and the tactics of triangulation. It’s a decision that the Democratic party is wrestling with in their search for a nominee in an election that feels…