A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

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Fascinating analysis by The Sunday Times. Activists directed to help Corbynistas rather than target winnable seats.https://t.co/HimIjC8mNF pic.twitter.com/jnxIgH4Aau — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 7, 2019 Don’t back Corbyn critics in seats they are expected to hold & back the Corbyn supporters in the seats they are narrowly expected to lose? There’s a fascinating story in today’s Sunday Times Momentum, the grassroots campaign group that backs Jeremy Corbyn, proposes on its online campaign map that canvassers travel to areas whose candidates are devoted…

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Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?

Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?

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? At a pinch this might impact on Johnson’s majority hopes Two and a half years ago the Tory star was then Scottish leader Ruth Davidson who saw her party north of the border make 12 gains to add to their previous single seat in Scotland. She was widely hailed as the future of the party and, even though not an MP, rose sharpy in the next Westminster leader betting. There was little doubt that it was Davidson who saved…

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LAB’s leadership rules will limit the number of nominees and could well ensure it’s an all-female battle

LAB’s leadership rules will limit the number of nominees and could well ensure it’s an all-female battle

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Starmer looks a clear lay to me Irrespective of what happens on Thursday, there will be some form of Labour leadership election soon. Tom Watson standing down as Deputy Leader (and MP) alone ensures that. If Corbyn does well enough to retain the leadership then the contest to be his deputy becomes a contest to be heir-apparent; if not, we get the full-blown leadership contest more-or-less straight away. A few notes of caution first. The election may well not be…

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YouGov snap poll: Johnson wins 52-48

YouGov snap poll: Johnson wins 52-48

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YouGov / Sky News snap poll on the TV debate Leaving aside your own party preference, who do you think performed best overall in tonight’s debate? Boris Johnson: 52%Jeremy Corbyn: 48% — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) December 6, 2019 Given the CON voting poll lead that’s not that good for the PM The CON majority betting has barely moved – still a 71% chance. I thought Nick Robinson did well and it was good to see the former BBC Political…

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Tories drop five seats on the spreads following the Andrew Neil interview rumpus

Tories drop five seats on the spreads following the Andrew Neil interview rumpus

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SportingIndex Commons Spreads Punters think it will have an impact Just before the Andrew Neil video attack on Johnson was published the Tories were trading at 344 sell and 350 buy on the Sporting Index Commons seats spread betting market. Those are now down five seats. On the Betfair majority market the Tories are down just a point. Spread betting is much more sensitive here because the more people are right the more they win and the more they are…

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The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

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As I have said repeatedly over the years leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. The reason is that this form of questioning is what pollsters do best – asking for opinions not seeking to get poll participants to predict whether they might take part in some future event and what they will actually do. Ipsos-MORI has been doing this in the UK since the late 1970s and has resisted the temptation to mess…

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The number that should worry the Tories

The number that should worry the Tories

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Andrew Neil’s attack on Johnson goes viral By 5am this morning, as my screen grab shows, there had been 3.3m views of the Andrew Neil video attacking Johnson for chickening out of doing an interview with him. That is a staggering number which doubt will increase during the day. No doubt the calculation in Number 10 was that the potential negative of being subject to 30 minutes of forensic scrutiny by Neil was worse than the downside of not taking…

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