Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

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A guest slot from Wulfrun Phil on latest Opinium poll Published responses to supplementary polling questions are not routinely filtered to limit responses only to those likely to vote in a General Election. That can distort interpretations of “Best PM” polling, because only the responses from those who will vote are ultimately relevant.  Helpfully, Opinium provide so much rich detail in their data tables here that we can apply the filtering ourselves. In their latest poll, the full unfiltered sample…

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If You’re in a Glasshouse …..

If You’re in a Glasshouse …..

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During Corbyn’s leadership, Labour was relentlessly attacked by the Tories, their supporters and cheerleaders in the press for the many failings which, they said, made Labour unfit to run the  country. Worth dwelling on the accusations for what they tell us about today’s Tories. A sympathiser with IRA terrorism: well-worn, repeated on every possible occasion and, combined with his associations with various dubious Palestinian groups and past statements about the causes of Islamist terrorism, the Tories happily painted a picture of…

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With 93 days to go Trump is going to have to do better than this explaining the US’s COVID19 numbers

With 93 days to go Trump is going to have to do better than this explaining the US’s COVID19 numbers

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Latest betting gives him a 35% chance of retaining his job As the the Daily Beast reports: ..the clip appears to show that Trump has genuinely managed to convince himself that his response to the coronavirus pandemic has been effective—because he only considers partial and deceptively flattering statistics to be true. Brandishing childishly simplistic, brightly colored COVID-19 graphs presumably provided to him by aides trying to keep him happy, Trump proudly tells Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the U.S. is ‘lower than the…

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Trump’s attack on voting by post might be making his defeat more likely

Trump’s attack on voting by post might be making his defeat more likely

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New polling suggests he’s creating a problem for his party The huge attacks on postal voting that we are hearing from the White House at the moment could in fact lead to fewer Trump supporters actually voting than Biden ones. With the pandemic still sweeping large parts of the US many individual states have been prepared for many more voters to want to cast their ballots in the November 3rd election without exposing themselves to the risk that going to…

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Team Biden now says he won’t be announcing his VP choice until just before the convention

Team Biden now says he won’t be announcing his VP choice until just before the convention

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The screengrab from CBS news above includes just about all the women who have been been linked with being Joe Biden’s running mate for the November 3rd presidential election. There had been hints from Biden team that an announcement could have been made this last weekend but now we hear that we have got to wait. My guess is that it will be deferred until the couple of days before the Democratic convention is due to start on August 18th….

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Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

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The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%. I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value…

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Some Trump (sore) loser bets

Some Trump (sore) loser bets

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StarSports have some markets up on what Trump might do about the 2020 election. I’m not touching the 8/1 on the 2020 election not to take place given the constitutional and legal impediments make it close to impossible to delay the election, even if Trump had a pliable House and Senate. The likes of Mitch McConnell have made it clear they won’t back a delay to the election. The 3/1 on Trump losing the election and refusing to leave office…

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