In March 92% of CON members thought Johnson was handling the COVID19 crisis well – that’s now down to just 28%

In March 92% of CON members thought Johnson was handling the COVID19 crisis well – that’s now down to just 28%

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CONHome poll blow for Boris The above data comes from the latest monthly survey by Conservative Home and shows a dramatic decline in the assessment of party members of Johnson’s handling of the crisis. From 92% saying he was dealing with it well in March the latest figure is down to just 28%. This, remember, comes from a group that you would expect to be loyal to the man that they elected as leader barely 15 months ago. Even in…

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Trump and his wife test positive

Trump and his wife test positive

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Betfair suspend next President market Big news in the last few minutes is that Trump has Tweeted that he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus. This is what he wrote: Earlier in the night he had Tweeted that they were having a test. Clearly this will impact on the betting and Betfair have just suspended their next President market.

A month ago Trump and Biden were level-pegging in the WH2020 betting. Now there’s a big gap

A month ago Trump and Biden were level-pegging in the WH2020 betting. Now there’s a big gap

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In the aftermath of the Tuesday night TV debate between Trump and Biden there has been a marked change in the betting on who will win November’s White House election. The chart of the Betfair exchange market is very clear and there is little doubt that many punters that have come to the conclusion that the challenger is set to win the November 3rd election. What has impressed me is how many senior Republicans have refused to back Trump on…

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The pursuit of happiness

The pursuit of happiness

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Have you noticed that people are still having sex? The government would rather they weren’t. The louchest Prime Minister since Lord Rosebery is presiding over a government that is seeking to tightly regulate when and where we have hanky panky.  It’s not just sex. At 10pm, the bars must shut. They can’t play loud music.  Graciously, the government is allowing them to have live bands with vocalists, but customers aren’t allowed to sing along. Since only six people can meet together, orchestral manoeuvres must take…

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The main debate message for Trump’s opponents is that there has to be a massive Biden victory – the bigger the margin the better

The main debate message for Trump’s opponents is that there has to be a massive Biden victory – the bigger the margin the better

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There’s been a huge amount of commentary and analysis following the overnight first Trump-Biden debate ahead of the November election. One of the best pieces is by David Frum in The Atlantic: Trump yelled, threatened, interrupted—and changed nothing. All he did was confirm the horror and revulsion of the large American majority that has already begun to cast its ballots against him. Correction: Trump did one thing. On the Cleveland stage, Trump communicated that he will seize any opportunity to…

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Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

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The above two Tweets set out the debate that is going on about what’s necessary to control the pandemic and what people will put up with. All this, course, against the background of what is happening to the economy. My instinct is to go with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, who is now one of the elder statesmen of the British polling industry. For me personally the family thing is central and I just long to see my children and their…

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The WH2020 betting edges to Biden after probably the worst TV debate ever

The WH2020 betting edges to Biden after probably the worst TV debate ever

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I made the mistake of staying up and watching the Trump – Biden debate which was truly awful. This was the verdict of Taegan Goddard of PoliticalWire: This debate was one of the most embarrassing events in the history of American politics. Donald Trump’s only strategy was to interrupt constantly. When he talked, he mostly lied. But Trump was successful at throwing the entire debate off the rails. He apparently decided you can’t lose a debate if you ruin it. Joe…

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Now the Trump v Biden debate betting

Now the Trump v Biden debate betting

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Overnight in the US, starting at 2am BST, is the first TV debate between Trump and Biden. This is a huge moment and could set the narrative for the remaining five weeks before election day. A TV audience of of tens of millions is expected A key plank of the Trump campaign in recent months has been to try to suggest that 77 year old Biden does not have the mental capacity to be President. This means that they’ve set…

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