On the Smarkets betting exchange Biden’s chances edge to record levels

On the Smarkets betting exchange Biden’s chances edge to record levels

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One of the frustrations for people like me who love to bet on political outcomes has been the suspension by Betfair of its £100m next president market following the hospitalisation of Trump. Given that we are just four weeks and one day away from the election I think the firm is being over-cautious. I can see the argument that we could be betting on whether Trump survives but, as someone who for a time worked for the firm, I think…

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History Today. A brief recent history of when dead Americans win elections

History Today. A brief recent history of when dead Americans win elections

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Apropos of nothing, honest, I was reminded of two recent occasions when dead candidates won elections they were standing in. The most (in)famous was in 2000 when the recently deceased Mel Carnahan defeated the incumbent senator, John Ashcroft. A report at the time said Missouri voters narrowly elected their deceased governor, Mel Carnahan, to the Senate on Tuesday, making him the first person to win a Senate seat from the grave. In one of the most bizarre episodes in US…

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Some frightening polling from America

Some frightening polling from America

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Being a seasoned poll watcher occasionally you see some polling that shocks and disgusts you, for example when in 2017 a poll found 53% of Britons liked pineapple on pizza but this poll from America frightens me on so many levels, in a way no other poll ever has. 33% of of Democrats and 36% of Republicans feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals, a staggering fourfold increase in just over three years. For a while I’ve…

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We could be wrong, you know

We could be wrong, you know

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OK. For a moment, I want us all to play a game. This is a very useful management technique I’ve learned, and it’s called the premortem. What I want us to do is to imagine it’s December 2020, and President Trump is re-elected – what did we get wrong, what were the signs we missed? Here are my three ways we could be wrong: We didn’t pay enough attention to approval ratings. President Trump’s approval rating has been steadily improving….

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Why there won’t be a President Romney

Why there won’t be a President Romney

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Sometimes it’s worth asking a QTWTAIN even when you know the answer The ancient Greeks gave us many things. Democracy. Really long poems. The kebab*. Proof by contradiction. Let’s combine two of them now, in a manner of speaking, to look at where the US election might be going in the light of Donald Trump contracting Covid-19. Everyone should be wishing Donald Trump well right now. Those who want him to win, for obvious reasons; those who want him to…

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