politicalbetting.com – Page 524 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Order of succession. The odds against Sir Keir Starmer being next Prime Minister

29/9/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Labour supporters were euphoric at the weekend with the news of the first opinion poll in over a year showing them in the lead. Is this a temporary highpoint or the start of a trend? Might Labour be on course to win the next general election? Perhaps. That does not explain the persistently short odds on Sir Keir Starmer becoming the next Prime Minister. At the time of writing, he was last matched on Betfair at 3.9 to be next Prime Minister. Are…

Read More Read More

With three months to go opposition to Brexit reaches its highest level yet

28/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This could add to the political challenge facing Johnson Being frank I do not know what to make of the big increase in the proportion of the YouGov sample in the latest polling saying “Brexit Wrong”. It is such a big jump that it might be an outlier. This is just one poll and looking back over the four years of polling since the June 2016 referendum this is the first time the level has touched 50%. Taking account of…

Read More Read More

Trump moving downwards in the WH2020 betting following the publication of his tax returns

28/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A lot of activity today on the WH2020 betting markets following the publication by the New York Times of Trump’s tax returns. As can be seen from above Trump is edging downwards while Biden moves up. There’s little doubt that this will feature a lot tomorrow night when the first TV debate takes place. No doubt the president’s campaign team are working on possible responses at the moment. For the fact that the man who boasted of being a billionaire…

Read More Read More

New York Times Investigation: Donald Trump paid just $750 tax in his election year

28/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This bombshell comes on the eve of the first WH2020 TV debate With polling day in the US just five weeks and one day away a huge development this morning is a New York Times investigation into the incumbent’s tax affairs – something that he has fought hard to avoid being made public. This is how the paper sums up what it found: Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his…

Read More Read More

Just two days before the first WH2020 TV debate the Economist forecasts a big Biden election victory

27/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Sunak now edges ahead of Johnson as preferred PM

27/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Chancellor now the “oven ready” alternative? Newbie pollster Redfield & Wilson has an interesting question seeking to measure Johnson against Sunak as preferred PM. The trend is shown in the Wikipedia table above and as can be seen Rishi is now outpointing Boris. This could be politically significant now the Tories have slipped behind LAB for the first time in a voting intention poll. Nothing will make Tory MPs nervous than the possible threat of losing their seats. That…

Read More Read More

For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind

26/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It was going to come sometime that with the PM’s awful ratings collapse we would at some stage see his party fall behind in the voting intention polling. Well that has happened tonight from Opinium. These are the numbers for the main two parties with changes on a fortnight ago. Labour 42% (+3%) Conservative 39% (-3%) Starmer takes 4% lead over Johnson as Best PM with Johnson 32% -3 Starmer 36% +3. Other figures are bad for the blue team…

Read More Read More

The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

26/9/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

What were you doing in 2005? At the time of the 2005 general election I was at a 40th birthday party in Northern Ireland (“I like this place: they take their politics seriously”, a Kenyan friend said, approvingly looking at all the posters). Tony Blair had just won a third term for Labour with a majority of 66. In the intervening period, we have had four further general elections and the political landscape has been transformed. Last year Boris Johnson…

Read More Read More