Moving on from Trump punters make it 69% chance that there will be UK-EU deal this year

Moving on from Trump punters make it 69% chance that there will be UK-EU deal this year

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Above is the market from Smarkets, the betting exchange that unlike Betfair settled Biden bets at the weekend, on whether there’ll be a UK deal with the EU by the end of December. Undoubtedly what happened on November 3rd in the US and the prospect of President Biden has impacted on punters. The chances of a quick deal with the US in the event of a no-deal Brexit must have greatly diminished and that is something that the UK and…

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Legendary Republican political strategist, Karl Rove, says the WH2020 outcome will be hard to overturn

Legendary Republican political strategist, Karl Rove, says the WH2020 outcome will be hard to overturn

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With Trump continuing to fight the verdict of voters in last week’s election there’s a warning to the White House from former adviser to Republican presidents and longstanding GOP operative, Karl Rove, about the current en passe. Writing in the Wall Street Journal he notes: To win, Mr. Trump must prove systemic fraud, with illegal votes in the tens of thousands. There is no evidence of that so far. Unless some emerges quickly, the president’s chances in court will decline…

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A Vaccine against Stupidity

A Vaccine against Stupidity

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The government must hope that Pfizer’s vaccine announcement will overshadow the continued rumblings about Kate Bingham, Chair of the Vaccine Task Force and her expensive (and, judging by results, useless) PR consultants. She is due to leave in January, as originally planned. If you believe Hancock, that is. He’s fast becoming this government’s Marie-Antoinette. According to his latest interview, people paid £670,000 for 6 months’ work in government should be thanked as they have “given up” six months of their…

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UK Punters still not totally convinced that Biden will be President

UK Punters still not totally convinced that Biden will be President

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Above is the latest betting chart from Betdata.io of the £600m Betfair next president market. With sore looser Trump continuing to refuse to accept that he was defeated and now blocking the formal transition process punters on Betfair are increasingly rating him as the winner up from a 4% chance at the weekend to a 9% chance now. Quite how long this will continue is hard to say but could we really see on January 20th, the day of the…

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My bet that Trump won’t concede

My bet that Trump won’t concede

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Chart from Smarkets A week after the American election and four days after the results showed Biden on his way to victory and so far President Trump has failed to concede. It has very much gone the other way with all leading members of the Trump administration and prominent Republicans backing his notion that that there could have been voter fraud and he wasn’t going to stand aside. Biden meanwhile is very much acting as the President elect making an…

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The final battle of WH2020 – the Georgia run-off for two senate seats

The final battle of WH2020 – the Georgia run-off for two senate seats

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Map Wikipedia The area highlighted in the map above is the state of Georgia which over the next seven weeks will see a political battle almost on the scale of the fight between Biden and trump for the Presidency. For although Joe Biden won the White House Race last Tuesday his party failed to take control of the Senate and without that he is very much limited in what he can do. For starters Biden wants to be able to…

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Was Jack Cade Right – would society be better with fewer lawyers?

Was Jack Cade Right – would society be better with fewer lawyers?

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“The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.” A cheer from half the audience at that and its response (“that I mean to do”); a groan from the other half followed. Whoever would have thought a Barbican audience would consist of lawyers and their clients!  Would society be better with fewer laws and lawyers? Lawyers’ concerns at recent Ministerial comments led to a letter signed by 800 of them – to the Guardian, neatly reinforcing the “lefty lawyers” caricature….

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