Just because Trump pulled off a surprise victory at GE2016 doesn’t mean he’ll do it again

Just because Trump pulled off a surprise victory at GE2016 doesn’t mean he’ll do it again

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The betting on Trump is completely out of line with all the indicators Having come out of the Democratic presidential and VP markets with a reasonable profit my attention is now focussed on the main WH2020 winner market and what I consider to be very tempting odds betting that a Trump victory won’t happen. I prefer to lay Trump rather than bet on Biden because it gives me more options. Biden’s age increases the possibility that something might happen and…

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Get ready for the UK “MidTerms” May 6th 2021

Get ready for the UK “MidTerms” May 6th 2021

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A crucial test for Johnson, Starmer, and the new LD leader One of the consequences of the the pandemic is that this year’s May local elections had to be postponed and also there have been no council by elections. Clearly having voting taking place while coronavirus is having such an impact would not be a good idea but democratic institutions have to carry on and renew themselves. So assuming there is no further postponement then the country looks set for…

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And now what’s dividing the nation – the Beeb’s decision to play Rule Britannia without the lyrics at the Proms

And now what’s dividing the nation – the Beeb’s decision to play Rule Britannia without the lyrics at the Proms

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I reproduce this poll because it is not often you get an issue that produces a political divide like this. Tories and Leavers, where there is a lot of overlap, are very much opposed to the BBC’s decision while LAB and LD backers are less sure. In my days as a BBC PR man, admittedly more than a third of a century ago, I would have been delighted at the attention this is getting. It says something about the institution….

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The father-in-law of Dominic Cummings reported to be saying that Boris will stand down “within six months”

The father-in-law of Dominic Cummings reported to be saying that Boris will stand down “within six months”

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Time for a punt on Boris going early? Quite how much you can trust this is hard to say but it might be worth a bet. I’ve just laid the Boris exit date being July 2022 or later on Betfair at 1.56. This is being denied by Downing Street but then it would be.

Trump making the election all about himself just feeds into Biden’s strategy

Trump making the election all about himself just feeds into Biden’s strategy

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Tonight sees the start of the virtual Republican party convention and the big speech is going to come from Trump. Same thing on Tuesday and on Wednesday right till Thursday night with Trump nightly being the star speaker. This is in sharp contrast with normal US convention where you build up to the big event on the final evening being nominee’s big speech. He doesn’t say anything public until that stage. That was how Biden played it last week and…

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Ahead of this week’s Republican convention Trump’s approval ratings remain dire

Ahead of this week’s Republican convention Trump’s approval ratings remain dire

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Above is the latest RCP table showing the most recent Trump approval ratings. In the US more attention is paid to these in Presidential contests than to voting polls and the trend above for the incumbent is not good. With the exception is the Republican-friendly pollster, Rasmussen, all the other surveys have dire numbers for Trump and there is no precedent for an incumbent with such disapproval levels getting re-elected. Of course most Americans are only just now starting to…

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As far as Betfair punters are concerned Ed Davey is heading for almost certain victory in the LD leadership election

As far as Betfair punters are concerned Ed Davey is heading for almost certain victory in the LD leadership election

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As the betting chart shows there have been a number of ups and down in the LD leadership race and on June 23rd Layla Moran was rated on the markets as a 69.4% chance. That was before the ballot packs went out and the series of virtual hustings took place. Since then the Betfair betting chart tells its own story and as can be seen Davey is heading into the count on Thursday with them thinking he’s a near certainty….

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The Corbynite delusion about YouGov contributed to their defeat in 2019

The Corbynite delusion about YouGov contributed to their defeat in 2019

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Team Corbyn learnt that Labour would lose the 2019 general election three months before a voter had gone to the polls. On September 22, the Sunday morning of the party’s annual conference in Brighton, John McDonnell walked with his wife, Cynthia, to a meeting room in the bowels of the Metropole hotel. What the shadow chancellor was about to find out would prove difficult to stomach. In the last days of August, Niall Sookoo, Labour’s director of elections, and Tim…

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