Who will win the first Presidential debate?

Who will win the first Presidential debate?

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Ladbrokes have a market up on the first scheduled Presidential debate for the end of September and my first instinct is to back Biden. Success equals performance minus anticipation and thanks to the Trump and his campaign they’ve lowered the bar for ‘Sleepy Joe’ so low that not even a baby Hobbit could walk under that bar. Then there’s what the Trump campaign have been up to President Donald Trump’s campaign launched a series of Facebook ads on Thursday featuring…

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Disruption on the line

Disruption on the line

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Let me take you back to a different time, a time when we worried about how the transport system was going to cope with the weight of numbers placed on it. Just six years ago, the tube drivers were confident enough of their clout that they could strike to try to get their demands. The strike was not total, but the effect was nevertheless crippling for London. Yet, as an LSE study found, a funny thing happened. Improvise, adapt, overcome….

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The polling continues to look solid for Biden

The polling continues to look solid for Biden

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And we’ve yet to see the impact of his comments about the military The latest WH2020 average from RealClearPolitics is above and shows it getting back to what it was before the Republican convention. According to the latest RCP calculation Trump is 7% behind nationally. This latest figure does not include any polls issued three polls have been published in the past hour that show margins for Biden of 10%, 11% and 13%. So it could be moving even further…

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The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

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The president’s polling retains a rock-hard ceiling, too low At the start of February, Donald Trump looked well set for re-election. True, his personal ratings weren’t great and nor were his head-to-heads against both Biden and Sanders, the two Democrats who’d shared the lead in the race for their party’s nomination for the previous three months. Even so, the economy was roaring ahead with record job numbers, America was near-enough out of foreign wars, and the attempt to impeach him…

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Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3% ahead

Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3% ahead

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A Data for Progress poll on the White House race in Texas, the second biggest state, has Biden leading Trump by 48% to 45%. This follows a Public Policy Polling survey yesterday that had Biden 1% ahead. In other recent polls over the past few days the Trump lead has been down to just 1%. This has prompted me to make my biggest bet so far of WH2020 – backing Biden on Betfair at 4.5 Of the states that might just…

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Another leading Republican declares for Biden

Another leading Republican declares for Biden

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What is significant here is that his state, Michigan, was one of those that swung to Trump at WH2016 and is an an absolute must win for Biden/Harris. Moves similar to Snyder’ are being seen almost daily by prominent Republican who don’t have the stomach to back the incumbent. The question is whether this will have an impact on other party supporters from last time. Those who make a stand are likely to prompt a stream of abuse from Trump.

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

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The Spread Betting firm SportingIndex has now got up its WH2020 markets and the early prices have Biden on 281 ECVs which is 11 above the number required. This is a form of betting that lends itself well to elections because if you “BUY BIDEN” at the stated level the more ECVs he secures the more money that you will make. Alas it works the other way if you get it wrong. The more you are wrong the more you…

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