And LAB is getting hammered in the locals All the signs are that Hartlepool is going blue by some margin and the latest news is that turnout is 42.8%. Elsewhere LAB has been seeing a huge number of council seat losses to the Tories but its performance is better in the results we have seen so far from the big cities. The main trend is that the UKIP vote from last time is almost all going to the Tories so…
TSE
TSE
There’s a good by James Johnson in the Times on why the likely CON victory tonight in Hartlepool won’t be as dramatic as it sounds. He argues: …the constituency has a uniquely large Brexit Party vote from 2019. Looking just at seats where the Conservatives were in second place, this was the largest in the country — and the third-largest overall. It is one of only five of 650 seats where the Brexit Party share was above 20 per cent. …That…
Home ownership – the issue that could eventually bring the government down? So, in the good old days there was a Left Wing party (which emphasised government action to minimise income differentials) and a Right Wing party (who preferred a less active state). But then a few things changed. Firstly, there was a (perhaps temporary) consensus about economics and the role of the state. And then there was “the culture wars”. Simply, (and completely simplifying) this was the idea that…
Based on information that has been collated by Tory peer, Lord Hayward, the vast majority of authorities will not be counting on the night. This is a great pity and means that the early “story” of the election will be determined by those that are. The overnight counts that I am aware of are: Colchester Borough CouncilDerby City CouncilDudley MBC*Essex County Council – Brentwood, Chelmsford, Harlow, Rochford, Tendring, probably UttlesfordHartlepool Parliamentary By Election (Expected to declare around 4:00am)Harlow Borough CouncilMayor…
By some margin forecasting this year’s council seat gains and losses in 143 local authorities should be avoided at all costs. With that caveat in mind, let’s have a go. We would normally base our assumptions of the likely outcome on the pattern shown in hundreds of council by-elections. But these have been suspended in England for over a year – so no data! Instead, we are using national polling figures for this exercise. Before we start some points of…