For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcome

For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcome

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The impact of Hartlepool and the locals In many ways it is quite extraordinary that for the first time since the general election in December 2019 the Conservatives are now betting favourite to win a majority next time. The betdata.io above shows how the mood on the betting markets has changed over the past year or so and now the money is going on the tour is doing it. Even though the polls have been showing double-digit leads for the…

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I agree with Shadsy

I agree with Shadsy

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I have to agree with Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes about moving the counts at the general election to 9am on the Friday. On administrative level it seems like a good idea as it would mean the counters aren’t pulling all nighters but are counting after a good night’s sleep. I postulate that it would make for a better environment for political gamblers to bet after a decent night’s sleep rather than pulling an all nighter. The fact we’d have a…

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These elections remind us that leader ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than voting intention

These elections remind us that leader ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than voting intention

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Regular readers of this website know that Mike Smithson and myself really value the various leader ratings and supplementaries as they are often a better pointer to election outcomes and these recent elections are further proof of that. Based on the tweets atop this thread I wrote a piece in March saying that Mark Drakeford’s Labour party were in a much better position than the voting intention figures suggested thanks to the munificent leadership of Mark Drakeford, it is clear…

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After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend

After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend

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Burnham’s margin over the Tory is incredible Nobody can argue that the local elections that have taken place this week have been anything but poor for the official opposition. Labour has done badly and no doubt this will renew speculation about the future for Keir Starmer who only became leader thirteen months ago. By far the biggest success story for the party has been from former failed LAB leadership contender and shadow minister, Andy Burnham, who beat the Tory to…

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Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now

Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now

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Unionists should learn the lessons of Brexit: vote on a deal, not a concept Goodbye separation trauma; hello separation trauma. After this week’s elections, Holyrood will again have a pro-Independence majority meaning the constitutional arguments of the last decade will not only continue but intensify. While the SNP look unlikely to win an overall majority, the Greens should see them over the line. Cue demands for a second referendum such as we have never heard for months. In truth, the…

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In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year

In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year

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The chart shows the latest Smarkets betting on Starmer’s exit date. As can be seen this was a 53% chance only yesterday and it has now moved to a 67% one. Clearly the former DPP has been struggling and today’s results make his position even harder. I was very struck by his manner during post-results press conference this afternoon. He looked shattered. He’s not helped by the social media onslaught by backers of Corbyn who seemed to be relishing the…

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It looks like there’ll be more celebrations like this over the next three days

It looks like there’ll be more celebrations like this over the next three days

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A massive night to the Tories and a huge headache for Starmer After the overnight results in the Hartlepool by-election and several local council elections, things look very good for the Tories in the first set of elections since the general election. The Hartlepool by-election outcome had been widely predicted by the polling but the gap was even bigger. Survation’s final poll had the Tories winning by 17% while the actual result had the party winning by a 23.2% margin….

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