Annalena Baerbock to succeed Merkel?

Annalena Baerbock to succeed Merkel?

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Could the 40 year old Green nominee win September’s election? Finland has one. New Zealand has one. Is Germany about to join the list of countries with young, dynamic female premiers breathing new life into democratic politics? Forty-year old Annalena Baerbock co-leads the German Green Party and if recent polls are correct then her party is on course for a stunning performance in the autumn federal elections. A young mother from Lower Saxony, she is said to be tough and…

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No More to be Said?

No More to be Said?

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No-one cares about Northern Ireland. No-one, bar its inhabitants, ever really has. Not the British Government which washed its hands of the province 100 years ago, leaving it to Stormont’s tender care. Not Britain’s political parties, declining to offer their political vision to its voters. Not United Kingdom voters who ignored Brexit’s consequences for its peace settlement. Not the current Prime Minister who signed up to a Protocol he either did not understand or had no intention of keeping. Not…

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Should Some Groups Need to Pay to Vote?

Should Some Groups Need to Pay to Vote?

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This sounds like a crazy question: but should the government introduce measures that require certain groups to pay if they wish to vote? One would hope that most people would answer “no”. But the reality is that requiring Photo ID is exactly the same as asking some people to pay to vote. Imagine two sets of queues at a polling station: one requires you to wait an hour in line, the other just 30 seconds. Now, allow people born between…

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In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year

In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year

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Given all the troubles that the Labour leader Keir Starmer appears to be facing at the moment then it is no wonder there has been a move on the betting markets about his future. Betfair don’t seem to have a Starmer exit date market up but Smarkets do although it is a very light on liquidity. Their trend chart is above. A big issue here is that unlike Conservative leaders the man or woman at the head of the Labour…

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Boris, Boris vote suppressor

Boris, Boris vote suppressor

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Compulsory voter ID is a solution looking for a problem The Government’s plan to make it compulsory to provide photo ID before you can cast your vote would be a good idea if voter fraud was a problem and there is simply no evidence that it is. This would be flagged if people turned up at polling stations and found that someone had voted already using their name and address. In these cases this is all recorded and over the…

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The by-election battle for Jo Cox’s old seat shouldn’t be as challenging for LAB as Hartlepool

The by-election battle for Jo Cox’s old seat shouldn’t be as challenging for LAB as Hartlepool

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The Batley and Spen parliamentary constituency is the former seat of the Labour MP Jo Cox – who on 16 June 2016, died after being shot and stabbed multiple times in the street where she had been due to hold a surgery. In the ensuing by-election the main parties stood aside and Tracy Brabin retained the seat for LAB with an 86% vote share. Brabin is now stepping down after her election last Thursday as the Mayor of West Yorkshire…

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Scotland’s election – how the pollsters did

Scotland’s election – how the pollsters did

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One of the great things about completing elections is that we can examine the final result against what the pollsters were recording. Above is the Wikipedia table of the final polls for the constituency section. My reading is that the S Times Panelbase poll just about got it with Survation almost as good. YouGov and Opinium both had the SNP in the 50s with the latter’s Tory figure some way off. Savanta ComRes gets the wooden spoon after seriously understating…

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Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election

Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election

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Thursday showed a big divide between the politics of Remainia and Leaverstan We have not got a date yet but the Chesham and Amersham by-election looks set to be the next big political betting event and the Smarkets chart above shows the latest trend in the betting which has the Tories with a 91.7% chance. Inevitably the Tory victory in Hartlepool and the successes in the local elections have given the party and its backers a lot of confidence as…

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