On the YouGov/Survation split the latter has a record of picking up moves to LAB better
Wikipedia final GE2017 polls Remember when its final GE2017 poll was dismissed as an outler Lots of talk by poll-watchers over the last 18 hours about the Survation survey which is showing a radically different picture of public opinion in the country compared with others particularly YouGov. To recall the former has the CON lead down to just 1% while the latter has it at 11%. This all reminds me of what happened with the polls when TMay was seeking…
Let’s admit it: the Good Friday Agreement is incompatible with Brexit
Northern Ireland’s arrangements need overhauling before they break down No-one cares about Northern Ireland. Lots of people say they do of course but in reality, as long as bombs aren’t going off (or, at worst, are only going off in Derry or Strabane or the like), then it’s either left to get on by itself, an insoluble problem best left alone, or a political football to be kicked in the interests of whoever’s kicking it. If they did care, it…
Setting the scene for next Thursday’s local elections
CON position better than LE2016 but worse than LE2017 – the years when most of the seats last fought Next Thursday, I think I’m safe in asserting, we will see the largest set of local elections ever to take place in England. This is because the group of seats that should have been voted on last year had their elections postponed and of course this year we have the 2017 cohort. On top of that we have several hundred local…
How Bad Is the French Vaccine Roll Out?
The perception and the reality France – the country of Pasteur, Marie Curie, Descartes, and Pascal – has a problem with vaccine hesitancy. Their own President, in a bizarre moment of self-harm, decided to declare the Oxford/Astra-Zeneca vaccine as “quasi-ineffective” for older people. Add this to long-standing issues with skepticism about vaccines generally, and you have a recipe for a country that is going to struggle to get jabs into arms – potentially resulting in France never being truly free…
Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next?
As We All Know Arlene Foster Has Resigned From Her DUP Leader & First Minister Duties. She Was Leader For Almost Six Years. There Were Ups And There Were Downs. In My Honest Opinion, She Simply Made Too Many Mistakes And The Pressure Has Been Building For A Number Of Months. With Arlene Leaving In May, Who Will Be The Next DUP Leader? Below Are The Runners & Profiles For Each Candidate: Name : Jeffrey Donaldson (Aged 58)Current Odds :…
With a week to go Scottish LAB and its leader edge up in latest Savanta ComRes poll
In the betting punters now rate the chances of a Boris 2021 exit at 25%
As yet I’m not convinced – but things could change Inevitably after the extraordinary manner in which Boris conducted himself at PMQs today there’s been an increase in speculation over when he will actually step aside. The betting on both the Smarkets (above) and Betfair exchanges rate this currently as a 25% chance. He could decide of his own accord that he’s had enough but I doubt it. What generally ends it for a Tory leader is MPs thinking that…