On a day when a poll had 59% saying Johnson’s “untrustworthy” the betting money edges to an earlier departure

On a day when a poll had 59% saying Johnson’s “untrustworthy” the betting money edges to an earlier departure

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There has been quite a lot of activity on the Boris Johnson exit date betting markets and we’ve seen over the past couple of days 2021 being the year of his going move from an 8% chance to tonight a 21% one. Clearly, there has been a lot of pressure building up and today in the law courts a judge has ruled that there should be a judicial review of the lack of action taken by Johnson over the bullying…

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My “Jo Biden Day 100” approval rating bet now looking touch and go

My “Jo Biden Day 100” approval rating bet now looking touch and go

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Its been edging up not down A couple of months ago I did a post here and bet at evens that by the time Joe Biden got to his 100th day in office he would still have approval ratings in the range of 50-54.9%. I described this as one of the best political bets at the moment. My worry then with the bet was that the novelty of him not being Trump would start to decline and by the time…

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Not a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM

Not a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM

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Increasingly over the past week or so it has been the Mail that appears to have the most negative coverage of Mr. Johnson. Above is the latest for tomorrow’s paper. Of all the papers the Mail is probably the most significant and this run of bad front pages comes in the final build up to next week’s set of elections. The bodies piled high remark was first widely publicised by the Mail.

It is a truth universally acknowledged that the most accurate poll is the one that reflects most your leanings

It is a truth universally acknowledged that the most accurate poll is the one that reflects most your leanings

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Over the past three days three separate national polls have been published. All of them show the Tory lead less than the general election but that is about as far as it goes. YouGov and Opinium are both online while Ipsos is carried out by phone. All three pollsters are very well established in the UK with records going back over several elections and each of them have regular media partners. Make of this what you wish. The outcomes if…

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Football fans appear markedly more enthusiastic about Boris and Keir than the public at large

Football fans appear markedly more enthusiastic about Boris and Keir than the public at large

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One of the reasons why Opinium is my favourite poster is because of the extensive way the firm presents its data and allows you to look at responses to one question and how it affected other responses. Last week’s big news was about the super league leading to Opinium including questions about this in its latest poll including one that tested the sample’s interest in football. So because of the extensiveness of the dataset, we can do comparisons on the…

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Why I am amongst those sceptical about Tory chances in Hartlepool

Why I am amongst those sceptical about Tory chances in Hartlepool

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GE2015 showed that betting based on single seat polls is a recipe to lose money At the end of last week I drove through the Hartlepool constituency on the way back home from my holiday in North Northumberland in the hope of seeing something that I could snap to illustrate the by-election. Alas nothing was obvious on the A19 but maybe I was concentrating on the traffic! Like David Herdson on Saturday I am far from convinced that the Tories…

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A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

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 Harold Wilson said in 1964, “The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.” By 2015 the focus was rather on what was moral about a crusade: which in many ways epitomises Labour’s problems all too neatly. In a recent thread, it was suggested that Labour needed some policies to attract attention and get voters motivated once again. My response was a Workers Charter. I suggested the following policies. Guaranteed minimum hours in every contract of employment. A…

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Only in the Midlands and Wales do more people think Johnson’s “clean and honest” than corrupt

Only in the Midlands and Wales do more people think Johnson’s “clean and honest” than corrupt

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In spite of it all Opinium has the CON lead up 2 to 11% The most striking question in tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer is the one above testing on how many perceive Johnson to be corrupt following the events of recent weeks. It really says something about things at the moment that such a question is included in a major poll. I am sure that this sort of polling question has been asked before but I cannot recall…

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