American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings

American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings

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Correlation does equal causation? I’m fascinated by this analysis, perhaps American pollsters should change their weightings and ditch weighting polls by age and educational attainment and use things like (poor) health condition and alcohol use. With the structure of the American health system poorer people cannot get the heath coverage and assistance they need perhaps this is why the GOP tried to gut and sabotage the Affordable Care Act? It was an attempt to beget more GOP voters. This is…

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A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform

A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform

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At the risk of sounding like Sion Simon soon there will be an election, in which Scottish nationalists will increase their majority.  The Scottish Conservative Party are campaigning on the principle that the last referendum should be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and to vote for the SCON Party to “stop indyref2”. If a majority in Scotland do vote for the Tories (or other unionist parties) then that is the end of the matter – feel free to ignore…

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Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

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When I heard this news I stopped what I was doing and decided to take a moment to re-evaluate my entire Mayor of London betting position because of this momentous news. After period of reflection I’ve decided to keep on betting that Laurence Fox will not win the Mayor of London contest in a fortnight. This news may actually have some genuine long term implications, I wonder if this the beginning of Laurence Fox coming under aegis of Nigel Farage’s…

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Some Welsh people and Scottish people walk into a polling station and

Some Welsh people and Scottish people walk into a polling station and

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It isn’t looking so good for the Tories in Wales now with Labour increasing its lead from 2 to 11 in a month The Welsh are such teases as noted before that they look like voting to make the Tories first in Wales but never do and like Opinium earlier on this week the talk of Tories winning Wales in next month’s Senedd is far away as ever although as Roger Awan-Scully points out this is Labour’s worst ever result…

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Johnny Mercer has given so much ammunition to critics of Boris Johnson

Johnny Mercer has given so much ammunition to critics of Boris Johnson

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I suspect Johnny Mercer’s words will be used by Sir Keir Starmer and many other political opponents of the Tory Party, I suspect the quotes from Mercer may rival the out of context quote from Mrs Thatcher about there is no such thing as society which was used to batter a generation of Conservatives, as the Guardian write up says. Former veterans’ minister Johnny Mercer has launched an extraordinary attack on Boris Johnson’s government, describing it as a “cesspit” and…

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A reminder that significant portions of Britons are so stupid they should be denied the vote and not allowed out of the house without adult supervision

A reminder that significant portions of Britons are so stupid they should be denied the vote and not allowed out of the house without adult supervision

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I missed this poll when it was first published in late 2019 as it clashed with the general election but YouGov have republished this poll following the announcement of the reintroduction of wildcats into the English woodlands after a gap of 200 years. I have worries about the 25% of Brits who would like to see brown bears and 36% of Brits who would like to wolves in reintroduced in this country, are they so naive that they think this…

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Great news for those of us who like laying Gammons, Laurence Fox, Shaun Bailey, and Brian Rose

Great news for those of us who like laying Gammons, Laurence Fox, Shaun Bailey, and Brian Rose

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Adam Drummond of Opinium has pointed out that the Savanta ComRes poll on the London Mayoral race prompts for every candidate, not just the main candidates which sees others poll a combined 17% as opposed to the 3%, 11%, 5%, 9%, 5%, 5%, 2%, 4%, and 4% in the most recent polls that the combined others have received. But even with naming the minor candidates the most high profile ones, Peter Gammons of UKIP, Laurence Fox of Reclaim, and PB…

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Boris Johnson’s opposition to Indyref2 might be as Herculean as his opposition to a border in the Irish Sea

Boris Johnson’s opposition to Indyref2 might be as Herculean as his opposition to a border in the Irish Sea

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In my best Game of Thrones voice: INDYREF2 IS COMING I have been staying out the year of the next Indyref betting markets because it could get messier than the blocked waste pipes in the toilets of a large and busy Indian restaurant because the terms of the bet and whether the referendum was lawful could complicate things, however that might change because of the recent story in The Sunday Times. Senior Tories, including cabinet ministers, believe this position [saying no…

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