politicalbetting.com

Given all the troubles that the Labour leader Keir Starmer appears to be facing at the moment then it is no wonder there has been a move on the betting markets about his future. Betfair don’t seem to have a Starmer exit date market up but Smarkets do although it is a very light on liquidity. Their trend chart is above. A big issue here is that unlike Conservative leaders the man or woman at the head of the Labour…

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Compulsory voter ID is a solution looking for a problem The Government’s plan to make it compulsory to provide photo ID before you can cast your vote would be a good idea if voter fraud was a problem and there is simply no evidence that it is. This would be flagged if people turned up at polling stations and found that someone had voted already using their name and address. In these cases this is all recorded and over the…

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The Batley and Spen parliamentary constituency is the former seat of the Labour MP Jo Cox – who on 16 June 2016, died after being shot and stabbed multiple times in the street where she had been due to hold a surgery. In the ensuing by-election the main parties stood aside and Tracy Brabin retained the seat for LAB with an 86% vote share. Brabin is now stepping down after her election last Thursday as the Mayor of West Yorkshire…

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One of the great things about completing elections is that we can examine the final result against what the pollsters were recording. Above is the Wikipedia table of the final polls for the constituency section. My reading is that the S Times Panelbase poll just about got it with Survation almost as good. YouGov and Opinium both had the SNP in the 50s with the latter’s Tory figure some way off. Savanta ComRes gets the wooden spoon after seriously understating…

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Thursday showed a big divide between the politics of Remainia and Leaverstan We have not got a date yet but the Chesham and Amersham by-election looks set to be the next big political betting event and the Smarkets chart above shows the latest trend in the betting which has the Tories with a 91.7% chance. Inevitably the Tory victory in Hartlepool and the successes in the local elections have given the party and its backers a lot of confidence as…

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The impact of Hartlepool and the locals In many ways it is quite extraordinary that for the first time since the general election in December 2019 the Conservatives are now betting favourite to win a majority next time. The betdata.io above shows how the mood on the betting markets has changed over the past year or so and now the money is going on the tour is doing it. Even though the polls have been showing double-digit leads for the…

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