Priti Vacant? Who will be next out of the cabinet

Priti Vacant? Who will be next out of the cabinet

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This market from Ladbrokes is an interesting one. Priti Patel who previously was a ‘winner’ in this market when in 2017 she had to resign in disgrace when she deludedly thought she was Foreign Secretary is the favourite in this market, at 1/1 evens I’m not remotely interested at those odds. For me the interesting one is the DEFRA Secretary George Eustice at 12/1 who has had a sub-optimal few days as the following thread by Jim Pickard shows, and…

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Free speech, one each. The myth of the oppressed rightwinger and what it tells us about politics today

Free speech, one each. The myth of the oppressed rightwinger and what it tells us about politics today

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Life has hardly been tough for Toby Young. Admitted to Oxford University with BBC at A level after his father (the leading academic, Baron Young) phoned up on his behalf, he has glided through lofty positions without visible means of propulsion like a flying squirrel, mainly using the high elevation from which he started off to maintain his position.   In 2018, he suffered a rare setback. Despite having no obvious qualification for the role, he had been groomed to be a…

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As expected Biden storming to big victory in South Carolina

As expected Biden storming to big victory in South Carolina

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Even though barely 6% of precincts have reported as I write, the networks have all declared Joe Biden the winner in the South Carolina Primary. At the moment he’s heading for more than 50% of the entire vote and it is hard to see anything other than him sweeping the state. There will be few states in the current nomination race where the outcome will be so clear cut in favour of one candidate and this exceeds anything that the…

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And so to South Carolina where anything other than a big Biden win would be a sensation

And so to South Carolina where anything other than a big Biden win would be a sensation

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His Obama link seems to be working well. Just about ever since Betfair opened its South Carolina betting market former vice-president, 77 year old Joe Biden, has been the favourite. There was a moment a weak or so ago when when everything seems to be going on Bernie’s way and he had a day as favourite. Since then things have changed and now Biden is a 93%+chance. The thing to remember about the state is that the majority of Democratic…

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Flying into trouble – the government’s position on Heathrow?

Flying into trouble – the government’s position on Heathrow?

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With one bound Boris was free! That seems to have been the government’s reaction to the Court of Appeal’s decision in relation to Heathrow, at least judging by the Transport Secretary’s somewhat disingenuous statement that as this was a private sector project the government would not be appealing the decision. Given how quickly the statement was made and how long the 2 related judgments were (143 pages) one wonders whether they were even read, let alone considered.  But in all…

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Labour must get over its myth of 2017 if it is to win again

Labour must get over its myth of 2017 if it is to win again

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A well-timed aberration is still an aberration Keir Starmer looks well set to win Labour’s leadership election in April. After securing comfortable leads among MPs, CLPs and affiliate organisations in the previous rounds, YouGov reported this week that he holds a 22% lead over Rebecca Long-Bailey, and is more likely than not to win on the first round. If he does, it will be in no small part down to the last set of rule changes which at the time…

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Can anyone stop Sanders – looking at the contenders one by one?

Can anyone stop Sanders – looking at the contenders one by one?

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Bernie Sanders is rightly the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. RIght now he leads in national polling, delegates, popular votes cast and has gone 3 out of 3 (Including a blowout delegate win in broadly representative Nevada) for states that have thus far cast their votes. Who can challenge him though ? Examining the candidates officially still in the race and those with odds of less than 1000.0 on Betfair. So in broad order of plausibility… Tom Steyer – He…

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