As can be seen from the betdata.io betting chart there has been something of a move to an earlier election. This is due to take place in 2024 at the latest and it could just be that Johnson might at any time cash in his popularity and go to the country earlier. I am not convinced because we all know what happened to TMay in 2017. She had an enormous margin in the polls sonewhat in excess of what Johnson’s…
But will Boris be forced into another U-turn? This is a massive day for those of us in England who have been waiting so long to be able to see loved ones, to go inside a pub, or to eat out INSIDE a restaurant. It is also a huge day for those like PB regular Cyclefree above in the hospitality industry whose families have struggled to keep their businesses alive while faced with the COVID constraints. I have been hugely…
There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next general election. The future of Scotland and potential boundary changes are just two issues that would change the dynamics. Nevertheless, this piece assesses the potential for opposition parties and their voters working together to deny the Conservatives a majority at the next election. The data behind the analysis can be found here. Tactical voting is an established part of our first past the post electoral system. For the most part it is done by those…
At the time of writing Andy Burnham is the 4/1 favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader, he clearly wants the job, last night in an interview with The Observer he said ‘Labour’s red wall seats would have been safer under me [Andy Burnham]’ and ‘he would run for the leadership again after the next general election if he had widespread support’. He’s clearly on manoeuvres but I think he’s someone you shouldn’t be backing but laying in…
This is, of course, Jo Cox’s former seat where a vacancy has occurred because the sitting LAB MP has resigned following her election as Mayor of West Yorkshire. In the betting the Tories are rated as a 67% chance to take the seat
Almost unnoticed last weekend amid the spectacular Tory win in Hartlepool, the constitution-shaking SNP-led victory in Scotland or the dismal outcome for Labour – compounded by a botched reshuffle – another party did very well: the Greens. Across the country, the thin Green tide advanced. Highlights included:– An increase in MSPs and pushing the Lib Dems into a clear fifth in Scotland;– Finishing fourth in Wales by vote – though no MSs, unlike the Lib Dems, who polled fewer votes;–…
YouGov has just put out the above polling on Keir Starmer and seeks to rate him against Corbyn, Tony Blair and the Mayor of Greater Manchester and failed 2015 LAB leadership contender, Andy Burnham. Thus the latter was in the news a bit last weekend after his re-election in Manchester but a total of 38% either didn’t have a view or didn’t know who he was. I generally dislike this sort of polling because the level of don’t knows is…
Should this go down as a LAB miss? Overnight we have had the result of the Airdrie and Shotts by-election which was held following the resignation of the former SNP MP to run for the same seat at last week’s election for the Scottish parliament. The general assumption was that this was always going to be an SNP hold and it has attracted little attention. The big interest comes in the actual result in the Wikipedia table above. As can be…