The LDs have a better than 6% chance of taking Chesham & Amersham

The LDs have a better than 6% chance of taking Chesham & Amersham

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On the betting exchanges the LDs are currently rated as a 6% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election which takes place on June 17th. I think this is a value bet. The above rather cheeky Tweet by the party President, Mark Pack, reflects a degree of confidence that follows a period of heavy campaigning and the party’s success in the constituency on May 6th when they took control of Amersham Town Council from the Tories as well as…

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Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands….

Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands….

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It is often said that Labour has no route to Downing Street without retrieving its former solid bloc of seats north of the border. Or winning back those “Red Wall” seats in the north-west and north-east of England. What is less often remarked upon is that it will not be enough – unless it can also do something about the Midlands. The part of the country which was until recently packed with marginals is fast moving them into safe Conservative…

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In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority

In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority

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What’s surprising is that this didn’t happen sooner Above is the betdata.io chart of Betfair’s next general election market and as can be seen for the first time the Tories are above a 50% chance to win a majority. Given the way that Labour and its leader have been struggling of late then the real surprise is that it has taken until now for the betting milestone to be reached. Currently the Tories and Johnson are continuing to benefit from…

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The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed

The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed

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Singling out nurses for special treatment could spark off a host of other public service pay demands The Jenny McGee story makes most of the front pages this morning and is likely to continue to get attention for a week or so until after the Channel 4 programe she features in goes out. This touches a few issues including BREXIT which has made the UK more difficult for trained foreign nurses and the need for the government to keep public…

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Both the coming by-elections present problems for LAB

Both the coming by-elections present problems for LAB

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After LAB lost Hartlepool and their lacklustre performance in this year’s locals the next two electoral tests also look problematical for Keir Starmer and his party. Next up on June 17th is the Chesham and Amersham by-election when Labour vote is likely to be squeezed by the LDs who came a second last time with LAB on just 12.9% of the vote. With Davey’s party throwing everything at the constituency the LAB vote is likely to be squeezed hard and…

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The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks

The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks

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And just two weeks later I find it very difficult to explain such a huge change within 2-weeks even though that period did include the May 6th local elections. Certainly, all the media narrative following the elections was questioning Starmer’s position and Labour’s performance which was reinforced by the party’s loss of the Hartlepool Westminster by-election. But in the counts that took place on the Friday and Saturday some less good results for the Tories emerged particularly in Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire,…

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What gerrymandering looks like in Texas

What gerrymandering looks like in Texas

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The map of a single US congressional district The map says it all – just how the boundaries of congressional districts can be so created so they maximise the benefit for one party – in this case the Republicans The boundaries are drawn by the Republican contolled state governemnt.

With everything going so well for BoJo he could be tempted to go for an early election

With everything going so well for BoJo he could be tempted to go for an early election

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As can be seen from the betdata.io betting chart there has been something of a move to an earlier election. This is due to take place in 2024 at the latest and it could just be that Johnson might at any time cash in his popularity and go to the country earlier. I am not convinced because we all know what happened to TMay in 2017. She had an enormous margin in the polls sonewhat in excess of what Johnson’s…

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