The LDs have a better than 6% chance of taking Chesham & Amersham

The LDs have a better than 6% chance of taking Chesham & Amersham

On the betting exchanges the LDs are currently rated as a 6% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election which takes place on June 17th. I think this is a value bet.

The above rather cheeky Tweet by the party President, Mark Pack, reflects a degree of confidence that follows a period of heavy campaigning and the party’s success in the constituency on May 6th when they took control of Amersham Town Council from the Tories as well as getting other good figures in the elections there that day.

What is important is that they are the clear challenger to the Tories who are defending a 29% majority from GE2019. Clearly that is a long way behind but their by-election machine has won what were previously Tory seats in both of the last two parliaments.

All gambling is about assessing the chances and we do know that Westminster by-elections can produce shocks. I regard the current 6% odds as being worth a punt. This is not a prediction but an assessment of value.

It will be recalled that on May 6th the locals we saw a very different pattern of voting in the southern part of England compared with the Midlands and the North with the LDs doing well in counties like Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Surrey, Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire where this seat is located.

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