What’s surprising is that this didn’t happen sooner
Above is the betdata.io chart of Betfair’s next general election market and as can be seen for the first time the Tories are above a 50% chance to win a majority.
Given the way that Labour and its leader have been struggling of late then the real surprise is that it has taken until now for the betting milestone to be reached.
Currently the Tories and Johnson are continuing to benefit from the general easing of the lockdown controls and everything still remains dominated by COVID. The hope for Starmer is that there will surely come a time when more conventional issues starting dominating the political discourse. Fourteen months into his leadership he has yet to make his inaugural speech to the party faithful.
We saw last autumn how perceptions of the government’s handling of COVID can move rapidly. The Ipsos-MORI October political monitor recorded a net satisfaction rating for Johnson of minus 27%.
It is often said that the most dangerous assumption you can make is that thing will go on as they are.
Whatever in this betting market punters are seriously overstsating a LAB majority at 10%. Without a Labour recovery in Scotland the chances are surely close to zero.