Why lockdown scepticism doesn’t resonate much with the voters

Why lockdown scepticism doesn’t resonate much with the voters

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Turns out it isn’t the economy, stupid. Ever since the beginning of the first lockdown one of the things I’ve noticed is pieces and comments along the lines of that the pandemic has ‘led to an extraordinary expansion of government power‘ but as a keen studier of history I know this sort of thing happens when there’s a genuine problem facing the country. For example the Emergency Powers Acts at the start of world war two or even the Thatcher…

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The slavish devotion of Republicans to one person is damaging to the country

The slavish devotion of Republicans to one person is damaging to the country

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This poll is part of a continuing series of polling which shows the GOP proving that they can sink lower than before. You would have thought if the January 6th insurrection really was the fault of Joe Biden and the Dems then they wouldn’t want to move on from it and keep on banging on about it. This polling does have betting implication, the changes since January means the mood is moving back to Donald Trump which should help his…

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Following LAB’s narrow Batley victory Starmer moves up in the next PM betting

Following LAB’s narrow Batley victory Starmer moves up in the next PM betting

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As expected Starmer has got something of a boost in the Betfair next PM betting following his party’s narrow victory to hold onto Batley in the early hours of yesterday morning. In view of George Galloway’s intervention taking 22% of the vote this was a far better result for Labour than many right wing commentators have been ready to acknowledge. Galloway’s stated aim was to undermine Starmer and he flopped even though he took such a large share of the…

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In the last 13 Westminster by-elections just one has been won by a man

In the last 13 Westminster by-elections just one has been won by a man

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There have been thirteen Westminster by-elections since December 2016 and an extraordinary fact is that in all but one of them, Stoke Central in February 2017, the winning candidate has been a woman. This streak started with Sarah Olney gaining Richmond Park for the LDs followed by Caroline Johnson’s safe retention of Sleaford and N Hykham a week later for the Tories. Trudy Harrison gained Copeland from LAB for the Tories two months later on the same day as Stoke…

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Could Batley change Starmer’s fortunes?

Could Batley change Starmer’s fortunes?

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Like all party leaders after a much publicised by-election victory Keir Starmer sped up to constituency for the now customary photo event with the winning candidate and assorted party workers. For all the Tories have tried to play this result down the expectations were that they were heading for another clear victory in “the North” so long seen as LAB territory. The betting markets, as discussed in an earlier thread, are a good way of looking at perceptions and it…

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Conclusions for all parties from Batley and Spen

Conclusions for all parties from Batley and Spen

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From LAB campaigner and ex-MP Nick Palmer The Conservative hope that Labour’s white working-class vote in the North is basically evaporating is something of a myth. Batley and Spen is not universally WWC, but it did vote Leave by 60% and the WWC vote is very substantial. Largely, it stayed with Labour and actually turned out. The predictions that Galloway was making real progress in the two Muslim wards look correct – the evidence that he was making much progress…

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So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances

So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances

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And the only poll, from Survation, was wrong as well Throughout this whole campaign the narrative was that LAB was going to get beaten and the story we would be covering this morning was whether Starmer would survive as LAB leader. We did have a poll that was published two weeks ago that had LAB 41%, CON 47%, LD 3%, Galloway 6%. The result at 5.30am this morning was: There is little doubt that Russia Today presenter and former LAB…

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