The big reason why the Tories lost Chesham and Amersham wasn’t HS2 – but Boris Johnson
There’s an interesting feature just published by the Guardian about the C&A by-election just a fortnight ago which makes the interesting point that HS2 is being used by the Tories to explain the shock result rather that was the big issue with many former Tory voters there, the PM Boris Johnson. The article by Peter Walker goes on: Rather than being a one-off upset, Green and other Lib Dems argue that their campaigning uncovered widespread dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and Boris Johnson..A…
Are we missing the obvious in Batley & Spen – Hancock and a narrowing of the poll gap?
In all the analysis of today’s Batley and Spen by-election there has hardly been any mention of the national political picture and a clear narrowing of the Tory poll lead particularly since that Sun front page with the picture of then HealthSec Hancock with an aide. Looking at the numbers the latest Redfield poll has CON down 4% on last week with Savanta/Comres showing 5% drop on the week – both polls showing CON>LAB swings since GE2019. The latest YouGov…
What happened in Batley and Spen at the May 2019 Euro elections
Read into this what you will The big news on the eve of the by-election is that LAB figures are saying they only have a 5-10% chance of holding the seat. This looks like a classic case of expectation management to deflect some of the negatives of a possible loss. This “revelation” might also be part of an effort to get out the vote tomorrow. The result is that the betting has moved even more towards the Tories who are…
The odds on Starmer for next PM move to a point where he’s now a value bet
Unlike the Tories LAB doesn’t need a majority to form the next government The above chart shows the movement on the Betfair “next PM” market over the past 12 months. As can be seen the big mover has been Starmer who reached a 32% chance last August but has now fallen back to just 12%. This is a hard market to call because just about the only way the LAB leader gets called to the Palace is after a general…
For the English there is only one story tonight and it is not about politics
Now a quarantine exemption plan for toffs – the rest of us will have to suffer
Surely sessions on using ZOOM would suffice? I can’t but agree the emerging view that this is politically dangerous for the government. It looks as though this is a plan designed to allow some favoured people (maybe CON MPs with directorships) to be able to get away while the rest of us have to put up with things as they are. Could it be that BoJo himself will find a way of using this exemption so he can go on…
In the Batley betting the Tories are not as strong a favourite as they were at C&A
What’s the Galloway impact going to be? Judging by the reports the Batley by-election campaign has become an increasingly nasty affair with the campaign of the Labour candidate, sister of murdered MP Jo Cox, and facing what could be seen as physical intimidation. Who has been behind this we do not know but my guess is that it might just help her. What we don’t know is whether the UKIP/CON supporting former RESPECT and LAB MP George Galloway is going…