politicalbetting.com

At the last election what was then Corbyn’s party came out with 203 MPs and since then Hartlepool has been lost. So to win on this bet what is now Starmer’s party has to gain 124 seats. That I would suggest is a huge ask and would be even if LAB was enjoying poll leads which of course it doesn’t have. This is one of those political bets that punters have got wrong. The main opposition party has a much…

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Bookies will give you just 1/2 on the next election being in 2024, but longer than evens on Starmer being Labour leader that long. That doesn’t add up… Clearly the market thinks there is a significant chance (implied by these odds as being at least 20%) that Starmer never makes it to the next election. That risk is being massively overstated. History Let’s start with a simple question: How many Labour/Tory leaders have their been in the last 20 years…

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But the Tories retain their 8% VI lead

Following on from the latest Ipsos-MORI voting poll we now have the full dataset which highlights what looks like being a big divide in public opinion – the choice of those who are graduates against those who are not. In some ways this represents the fact that the proportion of grads has increased sharply since the Robbins report came out in the early 1960s and paved the way for the huge expansion in higher education. What is interesting is that…

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Not good for LAB/Starmer on either leader satisfaction or voting These days when virtually all polling is carried out online the regular Ipsos-MORI political monitor stands out as the only regular major poll that was carried out by random phone calls to the public. What makes this one different for me is that I was one of those who was randomly called and the chances of that must be about one in several hundred thousand. The numbers themselves are very…

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This morning’s Daily Express raises what is almost certainly going to be the biggest, and potentially most politically damaging, decision that Sunak has to make – should state pensions rise in line with the triple lock formula which because of COVID could give them (and me for that matter) an 8% rise. We have looked at this before because the formula, part of the CON GE2010 manifesto, has state pensions going up in line with prices, average wages or 2.5%…

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