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There’s been a little of movement on a few betting markets in reaction to the latest developments in Afghanistan. Probably the most significant is above on the outcome of the next election. As can be seen an overall CON majority was the odds on favourite in the aftermath of the vaccine bounce. That is no longer the case and other factors like Afghanistan have come into play. There’s been no movement at all in the Johnson exit date betting where…

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The Tories largely without masks – in contrast to those on the opposition benches This morning’s emergency debate on Afghanistan is the first time that we have seen a largely packed House of Commons since the first lockdown came into force in March last year and it has been a big reminder of how abnormal politics has been. It was also Starmer’s first taste of being opposition leader in a big debate in front of a full House of Commons…

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Today’s Daily Mail is running a JL Partners poll carried out yesterday on the Afghan crisis and the findings are above. As can be seen the current US President and his predecessor get most of the blame in a survey that clearly reflects the nature of the coverage in the past 36 hours. There is a big British interest here given the role our armed forces have for the last two decades played in support of the US and the…

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One of the things we sometimes ignore when a new poll comes out is how the party shares compare with the last general election and from that we can compute “swing”. Thus last night’s Redfield poll had LAB 4% behind the Tories which according to my analysis is the “sweet spot” which, could lead to Johnson losing his effective majority even taking into account Sinn Fein’s reluctance to take their seats. That margin on current boundaries would lead to a…

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It is August and we are not getting very many surveys at the moment and indeed there is not that much domestic UK political news. As can be seen we have CON leads ranging from the 11% of Ipsos-MORI to 3% and 4% from Redfield. What is remarkably consistent is the CON share ranging from 40-42%. This is in sharp contrast to LAB where the range is 30% to 37% and the LDs with 7% to 13%. Ipsos-MORI is the…

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Films from the 1960’s and 1970’s show Afghan women dressing and behaving much like women in the West. Not all women, of course. As in many countries, older attitudes were found in rural or isolated communities. Changes are never evenly distributed in a country. The same could be said of Iran. It seemed as if emancipation of women and what this meant for their ability to decide for themselves what to do with their lives was happening in countries far…

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Should punters be be ruling out a second term? There’s is little doubt that the events in Afghanistan with the Taliban having now taken over just about all the major areas is going to hurt Biden politically. The big danger now is that he will go down as the one who “lost” and the consequences of that will be blamed on him. His strategy over the past month is in shambles particularly some of the optimistic statements he was making…

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