politicalbetting.com – Page 420 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Will Gavin Williamson still be in the cabinet on 31/12/2021?

5/9/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Gavin Williamson is here to stay? Today’s Mail on Sunday reports we may have a cabinet reshuffle on Thursday/Friday and Dominic Raab and Gavin Williamson, men so incompetent that they paid full price for a DFS sofa, are at risk, but this piece is going to look at the former Defence Secretary who was fired for leaking national security secrets. In most other eras Gavin Williamson would either never been appointed as Education Secretary or been sacked several times over,…

Read More Read More

Like a bad smell Trump isn’t going anywhere

5/9/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Jim Jordan’s comments confirm what many of us have expected for a while. My view is that absent actuarial reasons or if he is in prison then Trump will run for the GOP nomination (and win it.) If he is going to announce his intention to run in the next few days then you might want to get onboard the Trump train before it is too late, if you’ve been laying Trump for the GOP nomination/Presidency you may have toupée…

Read More Read More

For those betting on a Labour poll lead in 2021

4/9/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This twitter thread from Opinium’s Chris Curtis makes sense to me and if there is a backlash from Rishi Sunak’s proposals then there’s a couple of betting implications. First of all I suspect Sunak will become very unpopular amongst Conservative MPs and the Conservative Party core vote of pensioners so if you’re not laying Sunak then you should be especially if you followed the PB tip of 250/1 to succeed Boris Johnson. Secondly those who have bet on Labour having…

Read More Read More

Democrats look to be weathering the California Recall Election

4/9/2021 Quincel Comments 0 Comment

On Tuesday 14 September California votes on whether to replace the Governor, Gavin Newsom. California has a strong ‘recall election’ law, allowing ad hoc challenges to be made against incumbents. Indeed, virtually every Governor for the last few decades has faced serious attempts at a recall election, though none has made it to the number of signatures required to trigger a full ballot since 2003 (the one where Arnold Schwarzenegger won). Ordinarily Newsom would be totally safe, given he is…

Read More Read More

The retirees back the Tories so expect the workers to see their taxes rise

3/9/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Today reports emerged in several newspapers that the government is looking at increasing national insurance contributions to overhaul social care. I’m so old I remember when the Conservative Party I used to be a member of rightly described increases on national insurance as a tax on jobs, as this chart below shows. In my lifetime when the Conservatives start increasing taxes against the manifesto commitments or start messing around with taxation related to houses then they pay a huge electoral…

Read More Read More

Known unknowns. The General Election 2023/4

3/9/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Donald Rumsfeld, who died in June, will always be remembered for his statement about ‘known unknowns’ with reference to Iraq. The term was apparently already in use at NASA for risks that one is aware of, which is where Rumsfeld came across it. So casting our minds to the approaching next General Election what might the ‘known unknowns’ be here in UK for the 2023/24 campaign? The NHS. Obviously a perennial election regular, but this time it could be absolutely…

Read More Read More

2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council

2/9/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I’m struggling to remember a more loaded polling question but the response was still even more shocking, it might explain why long term Biden won’t take a political hit for the Afghanistan withdrawal. But then I saw this poll from Rasmussen commissioned by Pizzagate peddling far right activist Jack Posobiec and I thought wow Rasmussen really are a joke, they make Trafalgar look good. We should be grateful for and thank the Lord to the British Polling Council and their…

Read More Read More

The next G20 leader to leave

2/9/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This is a very interesting market from William Hill and I also like the terms of this bet which makes what happens in certain circumstances. If you look at the list below which shows when each of the next country has their next election you can understand why Suga of Japan is the favourite in this market. Canada – September 20th 2021 Japan – On or before 28 November 2021 France – 10th and 24th of April Brazil – 2nd…

Read More Read More