One of the earliest lessons I learned about opinion polls was that an unweighted poll, no matter how large the sample size is, isn’t an accurate barometer of the public. The most famous voodoo poll was the 1936 Literary Digest poll that had a sample size of over 2 million predicted that Alf Langdon would beat FDR in the 1936 Presidential election. It was only 39% out on the actual result as FDR as won by over 24% of the…
Following her reappointment as Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper became the third or fourth favourite with a few bookies to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as next Labour leader. I’m not keen to back her, in fact I’m a layer in this market. One reason for me is that Yvette Cooper put in a nondescript performance when she was Shadow Home Secretary for nearly five years between 2011 and 2015, then as Shakira sang, HIPS Don’t Lie, then there’s her constituency…
As has been noted before on this site, the Tories are “uncoalitionable”. [uncoalitionable] A swing against the party at the next election and loss of seats could leave the Conservative Party still with most seats in a Hung Parliament and yet unable to form a government due to a lack of potential allies. Chesham & Amersham shows the Tories could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in some seats in the South and a swing towards Labour could see the…
Last week the worst kept secret in French politics finally ended, as Eric Zemmour declared he was running for President. The far-right polemicist has raised a crescendo of media coverage, but quietly his polling might already have peaked. Two months ago, when I first discussed the French election, I argued that Marine Le Pen was a value bet so long as she could hold off Zemmour and (re)unify the French hard right. And in recent weeks, she looks to be…
There was a time when a Lib Dem lost deposit at a Westminster by-election was seen by commentators as evidence of decline. Well no more. The chart shows the party’s shares at the four English by-elections so far in 2021 which illustrates the strategy and how it is working. Given how totally dominant the Tories have been over the past decade or the main aim of what used to be dubbed the “third party” has been to try to win…
And Tice barely has an impact So a very comfortable night for the Tories easily holding on in the second Tory by-election defence of this parliament. This is the first hold for the party since Sleaford and North Hykeham almost exactly five years ago. Sure there has been a 10.2% CON to LAB swing on the GE2019 but this election has taken place mid-term during the worst spell of the BJ premiership when you would have thought the party could have…
The result’s expected in the early hours
Apart from the by-elections one of the bigger political betting markets remains on the BJ exit date. This is something that is speculated all the time with those opposed to the current PM tending more to predict an early exit. Former PBer Alastair Meeks had this on his blog: I’d make it about a 60% chance that he will be ousted before the next election. Right now Betfair makes it about a 20% chance that he’ll be replaced by 1…