Contrasting betting charts for two very different by-elections
In Bexley the Tory price has barely moved In North Shropshire the LDs have been edging up Both charts are from Smarkets which now has the widest range of political betting markets.
Old Bexley & Sidcup: The betting overstates CON chances
Tomorrow sees the first of the December by-elections in the outer London seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup which was held by the Tories at GE2019 with a majority of 40% plus. It is what happened last time that is driving the betting that currently rates the Tory chance at 91%. This, I believe, ignores the current troubles for the party and it leader. This is only the second Tory by-election defence since GE2019. The first was in Chesham and…
Whenever the LDs have issued data like this they’ve won
The data in the above Tweet was sent out in a “confidential” email to members and inevitably it has leaked which probably was the intention! I am told that this is accurate information based on the canvassing returns so far in the December 16th by-election. The campaign aim is to persuade Labour and Green supporters to switch their votes to the LDs. It is also to persuade activists not to take their foot off the gas and to potential voters…
It’s surely less than a 74% chance that the CON will win both?
Punters overstating the Tories again? One thing we learned about betting on recent by-elections is that punters overstate Tory chances. Heaven knows why I was allowed to bet several hundred pounds on the exchanges at an effective 20/1 that the LDs would win Chesham and Amersham. Some gamblers took a big hit there. We saw a similar pattern with Batley and Spen though admittedly the outcome was a lot closer. Now we have got the December by-elections and with the…
Cooper moves to third in the SKS successor betting
There has been a big shake-up in the next Labour leader betting following last night’s shadow cabinet changes. The new shadow Home secretary, Yvette Cooper is now third favourite behind Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, and the former MP Andy Burnham who is no longer an MP I find myself never quite understanding the betting appeal of Andy Burnham who was a total flop in the two Labour leadership elections one of which saw Jeremy Corbyn end up as winner….
BJ drops to MINUS 17 in latest ConHome satisfaction survey
The December ConHome satisfaction ratings or just out and see a big drop for the prime minister who is now in deep negative territory in the latest monthly survey of what Conservative party members are thinking. These ratings have been carried out almost since ConHome established itself a few months after PB was founded in 2004 and are seen as a good guide to what the membership is thinking. All this comes after a very bad month for BJ following…
It’s amazing what latest polls have done to SKS’s confidence
So today we have seen the first major shadow cabinet reshuffle by Keir Starmer underlining the fact that he is very confident now of his position as Labour leader. Would he have felt able to axe several ministers who came to the fore in the Corbyn years if the polling gap with the Tories had not closed? Remember he took over in April 2020 when LAB was up to 26% behind His line up includes many big names from yesteryear…
Could Reform’s Tice surprise us on Thursday?
I’ve just come across a BBC News report on Thursday’s Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election which has the remarkable claim by ReformUK that the party has knocked on 90% of doors in the seat. I find this hard to believe because it is a massive task for any party to achieve that level of penetration in a Westminster by-election. This is from the BBC News report: Reform UK – formerly the Brexit Party – may no longer have Nigel Farage…