Should we expect crossover in the next CON leader betting?
The latest CONHome survey gives her a big boost.
Counting the cost of trying to save Owen Paterson
Terrible MRP findings for Johnson from Survation New research and MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees by Survation in conjunction with Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University has found that the Conservative majority won in 2019 could disappear, should the current voting trend continue. The projections result in a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party by a significant margin. Two MRP polls were carried out and the table above shows the…
The Johnson exit date betting gets very tight
As we move on from the holiday season the big political betting market is on when Johnson will no longer by PM. This goes up and down depending on the latest developments and all eyes will be on the PM as politics returns to normal after the holiday break. Essentially he need to re-build confidence in his leadership and to avoid some of the developments like his speech the the CBI that we saw earlier in December. But he’s far…
Voters continue to socially distance from BoJo & the Tories
In 2017 the difference between the Tories continuing in office or a rainbow alliance was the performance of the Scottish Tories, in 1992 John Major doesn’t win a majority without the Scottish Tories, Scotland is a very important part of the fabric of the Union, so in close elections pay even more attention to Scotland. The SNP will be happy with this poll, they are polling 3 points higher than they did in the 2019 general election, an astonishing performance…
The voters think 2022 will be Boris Johnson’s annus horribilis
At this time of the year I look forward to seeing the predictions of the voters for the upcoming year as collated by Ipsos MORI. It looks pretty grim for Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer with a majority of the public thinking Boris Johnson will not be the Prime Minister at the end of 2022 whilst more people think Starmer will not be Labour leader by the end of 2022 than do. Like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson wanted to…
Even though it’s Xmas the Tory poll gloom continues
The 2021 StJohn PB Christmas Crossword (Est. 2006)
ACROSS 1 PM reveals all power corrupts without honour – right? (6,7) 8 Cable polled Labour grandee (4) 9 Angry substitute gets somewhere to sit in another place (10) 10 Conservative PM introduces a new set of rules enforced by ministers (5,3) 11 Endorse man holding suitable backing (6) 13 Government expert, covering Cold War’s origin, working with US President (6,4) 16 Remains here and laments the first couple leaving (4) 17 VAT announcement of Labour leader (4) 18 Dancer…
All I want for Christmas is new (platforms to bet on)
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of betting exchanges. Since they aren’t setting odds or taking risks from mis-pricings, they can easily offer a wider range of markets than their fixed odds brethren. There are two main exchanges currently, Betfair (by far the largest) and Smarkets (by far the best, but with mixed liquidity). However, there is a third exchange with good liquidity, many markets, and some appalling mis-pricings ripe for us to exploit. Sadly, we cannot…