In the betting, the money goes on Putin surviving
When this market first appeared a couple of days ago punters were giving the Russian leader an 80% chance of survival. Since then things seem to be going his way and it is becoming harder to see a change within a couple of months. He’s very much in control though things could change if the incursion into Ukraine takes such a toll amongst the Russian army that this becomes an issue. Putting Russian nuclear forces on high alert further adds…
The fog of war
There have been several reports saying Conservative MP think that the conflict in Ukraine helps Boris Johnson and reduces the chances of him being ousted as Conservative leader and Prime Minister because the logic is that Conservative MPs think now is not the time to replace a Prime Minister who shamefully broke his own Covid-19 regulations, told Parliament deliberate fundamental inaccuracies, and general unfitness for high office, or even low office. However I’m wondering that assumption by Conservative MPs might…
Global Britain
“Pecunia non olet.” “Money has no smell”. Whatever its truth in the Rome of Emperor Vespasian, current events should have disabused the British political and financial establishment of the truth of this. Money smells. And how. And its stench lingers. As Britain is now finding out. For years, as I set out here, Britain has opened its financial sector, its property market, its citizenship, its legal system, its political parties, its honours and its society to those with wealth, the…
Starmer still has a 30%+ net approval lead over Johnson
This means that Johnson has a net MINUS 33% with Starmer net MINUS 1%. So the LAB leader has a margin of 32% In voting intention the firm sees almost no change – LAB 4% ahead on its new methodology compared with 3% a fortnight ago. As PBers will know I regard leadership approval as a much better measure than voting intention as we have seen at General Elections where the VI polling has not got it right.
Final reminder: PB’s 18th Birthday Party – Wednesday 6.30pm
Smarkets HQ: St Katherine Dock , London Thanks to the Smarkets betting exchange for hosting the 18th birthday party for the site at their offices in the scenic setting of St Katherine Docks in London. The address is 1 Commodity Quay, St Katharine Docks, London E1W 1AZ. Phone 020 7617 7413. The guestlist includes pollsters and some other faces from the world of politics and forecasting as well as PBers. Smarkets will be providing drinks and some nibbles. I am grateful…
The outcast in Anchorage: A senate storm brews in Alaska
Nobody talks about it, but electoral reform is all the rage these days. Maine adopted AV (or, as they call it, Ranked Choice Voting) in 2018 for all statewide offices. The Tories are changing mayoral elections from SV to FPTP. And in Alaska an unusual system could have big implications for this year’s senate race. Alaska has merged AV and the ‘Jungle Primary’ system used by California into a unique system which works as follows: All candidates, from all parties…
Back home Rentoul thinks the betting markets are wrong on Sunak
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