Nobody talks about it, but electoral reform is all the rage these days. Maine adopted AV (or, as they call it, Ranked Choice Voting) in 2018 for all statewide offices. The Tories are changing mayoral elections from SV to FPTP. And in Alaska an unusual system could have big implications for this year’s senate race.

Alaska has merged AV and the ‘Jungle Primary’ system used by California into a unique system which works as follows:

1. All candidates, from all parties (including multiple candidates from the same party if they choose) run in a collective first round; then
2. The top 4 candidates go through to the November election, which uses AV.

This is extremely timely for Alaskan senator Lisa Murkowski. The Republican senator was always likely to face a primary challenge for her more moderate positions, but voting to convict Donald Trump at his second impeachment trial made the fight all the more intense.

That challenge comes from Kelly Tshibaka, who holds the endorsements of not only Trump but the Alaska Republican Party itself. Murkowski meanwhile boasts the unusual combination of endorsements from George W Bush, Mitch McConnell…and Democratic senator Joe Manchin (who she has endorsed back).

Murkowski has weathered this storm before, actually losing her primary in 2010 to a Tea Party Republican. Then, in one of the most remarkable achievements in US politics this century so far, won the general election as a ‘Write In’ candidate despite not even being on the ballot. This time though, the electoral system provides her with a much easier path.

Unlike 2010, Murkowski faces no formal primary. I’ve emailed the Alaska Electoral Commission to check, and as far as I can tell Murkowski remains a Republican on the ballot unless she chooses otherwise. Even if Tshibaka were to gain the lion’s share of Republican support it is pretty unthinkable that Murkowski wouldn’t make the top 4 (and polls in fact show her leading). In that runoff, she would have pretty strong crossover appeal for second preference votes from Democratic voters.

As well as protecting Murkowski at the election, it will be interesting to see if this changes her incentives for how she acts in office. Murkowski is one of the few vaguely swing votes left in the Senate, and the AV system would make crossing the floor on some votes much more electorally viable (if she wants to, that is). In particular, she hasn’t ruled out voting for Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Supreme Court nomination.

The final question, of course, is whether this form of election will catch on. Both Maine and Alaska have moved away from FPTP in the last few years, though sweeping electoral reform has had a lot of false dawns over the years. But if this did spread across the US, it might be one of the only things which could begin unwinding the hyper-partisanship which currently dominates US politics.

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bets on an Independent winning the Alaska Senate race, placed before he realised the new system meant Murkowski doesn’t need to win an internal primary to be a Republican on the ballot. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts