Could the Tory 41% Bexley majority really be in danger?

Could the Tory 41% Bexley majority really be in danger?

One of the things about by-election betting is that unless you have a fair idea of what is happening on the ground then it is hard to come to any conclusions. What we do you know about this contest is that it is coming after a very difficult period for the Conservatives and for Johnson. The national polling position of the Tories has slipped a few steps since the seat became vacant in the second week of October. Then CON…

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A CON election majority down to a 36% chance in the betting

A CON election majority down to a 36% chance in the betting

We have not looked at this betting chart for some time but clearly the chances of Johnson getting a second successive majority have taken a hit in recent months and are now at their lowest point since March. There is a similar pattern in the Johnson exit date betting. It is not long, surely, before the issue of whether the PM is the right person to lead the party next time will become much more widely discussed. There’s no doubt…

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Johnson’s Nightmare November continues with another bad poll

Johnson’s Nightmare November continues with another bad poll

CON 37%-2 LAB 37%+2 LD 10%+1 GRN 4% Yet another pollster, Survation, has the Tories losing their poll lead although it has the main parties level pegging. The real meat of the poll which should worry Number 10 are perceptions about integrity and honesty which have been sparked off by the botched handling of Owen Paterson. On the reputation of the Government, 59% said they do not believe the government upholds the Nolan principle of integrity, and 62% do not believe…

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The betting gets tighter in North Shropshire

The betting gets tighter in North Shropshire

Are punters too influenced by Chesham & Amersham? The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson. It had appeared that there was going to be a recall petition which…

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For the Tories Bexley & Sidcup could not have come at a worse time

For the Tories Bexley & Sidcup could not have come at a worse time

At GE2019 the Tories won 64.5% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with LAB on just 23.5% so on the face of it a “certain” CON hold. Yet that is not how it is seen. Starmer’s party is throwing a lot at the seat and clearly, the political climate for a Tory defence is far from ideal. Inevitably corruption and MPs second jobs have evolved as key issues. When the Tories held the seat at GE2019 the overall…

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Date for your diary: PB Gathering – Feb 3rd 2022

Date for your diary: PB Gathering – Feb 3rd 2022

It has been a long time coming but I am delighted to announce that the first PB Gathering since before GE2017 is scheduled to take place on February 3rd next year. Smarkets, the betting exchange that is expanding rapidly in political markets, have agreed to host the event at their offices close to the Tower of London. Thanks to Quincel (Pip Moss) and to Matthew Shaddick of Smarkets for driving this. In the past, these events have been a great…

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