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We have given hardly any coverage to today’s Westminster by-election in Erdington simply because this appears to be an almost certain LAB hold. The GE2019 outcome featured in the Wikipedia panel above came on a day when nationally the Tories had a 12% vote lead over LAB. Things are very different nationally today and on the face of it, there appears no reason to assume anything other than a LAB hold. I have two caveats. The Tories are trying to…

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The anti-BoJo plotters should have moved 2 months ago For months the busiest UK political betting market has been the one above on when Johnson is going to be replaced. The Betdata.io chart tells the story of the past two months and as can be seen it was in mid-January that things looked very dark for the current occupant of number 10. All the talk then was of letters going to the chairman of the 1922 committee seeking a confidence…

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Above in the pic are Anthony Daly, Peter the Punter and Stodge -just three of the 40+ attendees at PB’s 18th birthday party. The event was hosted by Smarkets at their dockside offices and provided excellent food and drink. These events which happen so infrequently give me and all who work on the site a great boost because it is great to hear at first-hand time and time again how people love PB and the very different perspective it can…

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I’m just leaving to get the train to London for this evening’s 18th Birthday party which is being held at the Smarkets offices, 1 Commodity Quay, St Katharine Docks, London E1W 1AZ. Really looking forward to the first PB gathering for several years. Will post later.

A new month and a new Smarkets polling bet Tonight in London at the headquarters of the Smarkets betting exchange there will be the PB 18th birthday party – the first gathering for several years. It is being hosted by Smarkets as part of a big effort by the firm to establish itself as a leading political bookmaker alongside all its other activities. What has distinguished the firm in recent months is a range of political betting markets where we…

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In the space of a week we have heard two speeches which are changing the world we live in, certainly in Europe and, likely, elsewhere. This evening we will hear a third one. The first was by Putin when announcing his invasion of Ukraine. The critical line is this one – “The problem is that in the territories adjacent to us – territories that were historically ours, I emphasise – an “anti-Russia” hostile to us is being created, placed under full external control;…

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As can be seen from the betting chart there has been a sharpish move to Johnson in the market on when he will cease to be Prime Minister. Just 5 weeks ago a 2022 exit was seen as a 78% chance – now that is down to a 43% one. Wars and international conflicts tend to help incumbents and we are seeing Macron polling better in France only weeks before the first round of voting in the Presidential election. Could…

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This closes at the end of the week Marine Le Pen is still the second favourite in the French Presidential betting although the time is running out for her to get the required 500 nominations. Zemmour is in the same position. Nominations finally close on March 4th. The challenge they both face is that only a very select group can nominate, mostly mayors, and the target of 500 has to include a geographical spread including some parts of France where…

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