politicalbetting.com

It is extraordinary to note the huge changes that have taken place over the past 6 weeks in the betting for next prime minister. As can be seen from the chart the big losers in the eyes of punters have been Chancellor Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Basically things have changed because of the recovery by Boris Johnson and the fact that a Conservative leadership contest looks far less likely this year. This hasn’t been helped by the invasion…

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This afternoon Keir Starmer demanded that Westminster’s intelligence and security committee should probe the circumstances in which Johnson made Evgeny Lebedev a peer of the realm. The Guardian reports: The demand came after a fresh report that the intelligence agencies had reframed an assessment that Lebedev’s appointment would pose a security risk following an intervention from the prime minister in early 2020.Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday Morning, Starmer said he was very concerned: “There’s at least the suggestion that the government…

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Does the format impact on the outcome? One of the standard polling questions that the vast majority of political opinion polls ask is on respondents’ preference for prime minister. These are how the different pollsters approach it: Opinium: “Which, if any, of the following people do you think would be the best prime minister?” BMG Research: “If you had to choose between the two, who would you prefer to see as the next Prime Minister?” YouGov / Survation: “Which of…

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A look over the odds and latest polls All he needs to do is to make Jadot a nice offer and he will be in a strong running. On the assumption he accrues all the Jadot vote share (and none of anyone else’s, such as Poutou’s), he will be 5% ahead of 3rd-placed Le Pen (Ipsos), 0.5% behind her and 2.5% ahead of 4th-placed Pécresse (Ifop), and 2% behind her and 3% ahead of Pécresse (OpinionWay). Zemmour and Pécresse would…

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Ever since the Russian invasion I’ve been asked several time by friends and family if there is betting on the outcome. Quite rightly: There is not. However, while I appreciate some people might find even this column too close to the line, I want to discuss Eurovision 2022. Previously available at odds suggesting they would just make up the numbers, Ukraine have shot to favourite status in the last fortnight. They sit at just over 2/1 at the exchanges and…

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Describing Putin as a “genius” last week might not have been smart We are just seven months away from the US midterms when the Republicans were expected to win back control of the House and the Senate – a political situation that would make life politically difficult for the Democrats and Biden. The campaign looks as though it will be set against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s previous very vocal support for Putin could harm…

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Smarkets have a betting market One of the smarkets betting markets that has seen a fair amount of interest this week is the above one on whether petrol will move to £2 a litre in the UK at some stage during 2020. Things seem to have shot up quite sharply over the past week probably in a reaction to the events in Ukraine and levels appear to be the highest ever. But the price of a litre is still a…

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