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The polling has a different picture The former head of political research at the BBC, David Cowling, has issued his latest polling table showing the results of all the surveys on how Scottish voters think another independence referendum would go. The last such vote was in 2014 when it was rejected by a margin of about 10%. As can be seen from the polling table there has been some movement from that point and there have been a couple of…

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The awfulness of the tragedy in the Channel inevitably gets a lot of coverage this morning and one of the issues is that there appears to be no obvious solution. The idea that British troops or other forces should patrol French beaches doesn’t seem feasible. The French government is hardly going to allow armed forces from a foreign power to enter its territory. The real tragedy is that the people involved are so desperate that they are prepared to take…

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Given what has happened in British politics over the last few weeks I find it remarkable that back in August one of the best bets that I was recommending was that LAB would get a polling lead of some sort by the end of the year. Then such a possibility seemed so remote but how things have changed. When I made that bet with Smarkets I was talking about the possibility of an outlier. Now with the latest Kantar 3%…

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Given how voting polls have changed in recent weeks I thought it might be worthwhile looking at what those who voted for BJ’s party at the last election are thinking now. The chart is based on the latest poll from Opinium and shows the current voting intentions of GE2019 CON voters. Just 7% have moved to LAB but the biggest other segment is “Don’t Know”. By contrast, 73% of 2019 LAB voters say they will stick with their party with…

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A week tomorrow voters in Old Bexley and Sidcup go to the polls in the second Tory by-election defence of this parliament. So far betting has been fairly limited with less than £40k being traded on Smarkets and Betfair put together. In the former the odds on the Tories have now moved to a 94% chance and I just wonder whether, once again, punters have this wrong. It will be recalled that in June the betting exchange odds on the…

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I have been following politics for long enough to know that the chances of PMs going early is almost always overstated by the media and commentators – something that political gamblers are not doing. Sure BJ’s has had a tricky time but he’s got the chance to remind voters of his authority at PMQs at noon. My own guess is that BJ’s exit will be of his own accord in order to get back to earning several times as much…

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The PM really needs good CON by-election wins It was bound to happen at some point with BJ as with all CON leaders – talk of a no confidence move. I am sure we all know the procedure by now. 15% of the Parliamentary party – 54 MPs – have to send letters to the Chair of the 1992 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, requesting such a vote. Once that total is reached there is a secret ballot of MPs and…

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Putting BJ’s election success into context In the previous post I argued that much of BJ’s electoral success has been based on the weakness of his LAB opponents at the time – Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty and Corbyn at the last general election. Above are the Wikipedia table of leader ratings for the then LAB leader ahead of GE2019. I put them up as a reminder of how badly Corbyn was perceived in the final few months. Having…

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