politicalbetting.com

It is almost hard to credit it now but barely two months ago Chancellor Sunak looked relatively certain to be the next prime minister and the betting he money was on a change at Number 10 taking place during this year. How that different that appears now as Johnson’s ratings rise in response to his steady performance over Ukraine and his growing confidence. He certainly is having a good war as they say. Sunak’s big chance was in ‘January when…

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Russia’s proposals to end the war/Special Military Operation amount to asking for Ukraine’s unconditional surrender and remaining under Russian influence thereafter. It is less the proposals which are interesting, more the fact that they have been made at all. And by Russia. The war has, so far at least, “developed not necessarily to [Russia’s] advantage“. And as Emperor Hirohito observed “the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest.” Still, it is early days and if Russia…

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The voting numbers were: Lab: 37% (-2 from 24-25 Feb) Con: 35% (+1) Green: 8% (+2) Lib Dem: 7% (-2) SNP: 5% (n/c) Reform UK: 5% (n/c) As can be seen in the chart 33% said Starmer would make the best PM compared with 26% for Johnson. This compares with yesterday’s Redfield Wilton where Johnson is on 39% compared with Starmer’s 35%. As I recently argued the format of the R&W “best PM” question is very favourable to the incumbent…

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What is becoming very clear is that there is a great deal of public involvement in the UK over the Ukraine crisis. People see terrible scenes on their televisions every evening and this has touched a raw nerve. Many want to find out if there is a way they can help relieve the terrible conditions many Ukrainians are having to put up with. We are told that well over a million people have fled the country and are now refugees….

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Above is a screen grab of the latest move today in the Ukraine crisis – the Russians setting out what they would agree to for a peaceful outcome. To my mind the hardest one there is the third which it is very difficult seeing the Ukrainians agreeing to. It is also I would suggest the real reason why Putin has taken this massive gamble. What really irks with him is that Ukraine, which used to be part of the USSR,…

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For the others the race is about positioning for 2027 in one sense the Ukraine crisis could not have come at a better time for the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking to secure a second term in the French Presidential elections next month. He’s been the Western leader who has been taking the lead with linkages with Vladimir Putin as the efforts continue to try to bring Putin’s invasion to a halt and to return to normality….

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It is extraordinary to note the huge changes that have taken place over the past 6 weeks in the betting for next prime minister. As can be seen from the chart the big losers in the eyes of punters have been Chancellor Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Basically things have changed because of the recovery by Boris Johnson and the fact that a Conservative leadership contest looks far less likely this year. This hasn’t been helped by the invasion…

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