Ayrshire hotelier remains the favourite to win the American presidency
I still think Harris remains value. TSE
Senatorial Choices
All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races. And, boy, is this one interesting. As a reminder, the Democrats (along with associated Independents) currently control the Senate by 51 to 49. And there a *lot* of close elections this year. There are three Senate races currently held by the Democrats in States where Trump won in 2020: West Virginia,…
State of the Union, Week 8
The charts are getting redder. No one is giving the Electoral College to Harris now, the best forecasts are unclear results from Nate Silver and electoral-vote, with differing states tied in their models. And in the national polling, the movement is in Trump’s direction, even if Harris is leading slightly. The Senate picture is different (a little, not a lot) – after years of being told by pundits that split ticket voting was a thing of the past, it looks…
11 days to go and punters aren’t expecting Badenoch to Kemikaze her chances
On Saturday I did partake in a YouGov poll of Tory members, the last poll had Badenoch defeating Jenrick by the cursed ratio of 52% to 48%. If a new poll shows something similar or Jenrick ahead then I’d expect this market to be jolted. But on the last available evidence Jenrick represents some value. TSE
A blast from the past
The public were wrong about the Lib Dems after the fashion as David Cameron’s black widow strategy worked brilliantly a few months later whilst it took the Lib Dems nearly a decade to recover. There are absolutely no epistemological problems saying that UKIP have utterly faded. TSE
Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers?
As a young Tory in London in the early 2000s this is eerily familiar. TSE
The scale of the Tory challenge (and why being a lawyer helps Jenrick)
The Tories need to make a net gain of 205 seats at the next election to win a majority of 2. The chart above shows the challenge the new Tory leader faces. Even if they make the sort of net gains Tony Blair won in 1997 it would still likely place the Tories as the second largest party (it would put the Tories on fewer seats than Labour won under Neil Kinnock in 1992.) If Starmer can win a majority…
Why Trump is (a bit) like Hamas
This comparison will offend some of you, sorry. Also, if you are a supporter of either Trump or Hamas, maybe skip reading this. Most sensible people are both anti-Trump and anti-Hamas. But here’s the rub: I’d wager that many people who will put a cross next to Trump on November 5th are also anti-Trump, and many Palestinians that tolerate Hamas’ leadership are anti-Hamas. It’s just that, in both cases, the people in question cannot see a better option than to…