It’s just like the 1990s

It’s just like the 1990s

Is no part of the country safe from Boris Johnson’s toxicity? If you have fallen into a coma in 1996 and woken up this week you might have thought you’d have been in a coma for a few days not 26 years as Tory sleaze and the Lib Dems surging all over the place in by elections seems to still be all the rage, all that is missing is having 2 Unlimited and Gina G in the top 40. The…

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Keir and loathing in Durham

Keir and loathing in Durham

If you’re betting on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership ending in 2022 then this news will get you excited. I’m still of the belief that if Starmer resigns after receiving a FPN then the pressure on the Prime Minister to resign will become unassailable. With the Prime Minister facing a pinch point with his appointment of Chris Pincher, despite all the warnings, the PM seems even more vulnerable despite winning the vote of confidence last month because of the Pincher scandal….

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Tamworth – the next by-election?

Tamworth – the next by-election?

So far at least Mr. Pincher (which seems an unfortunate name given the circumstances) has not resigned as an MP and we await the inquiry into what actually happened that caused this whole affair to explode yesterday. My sense is that Pincher is not going to be pushed into resignation as easy as one or two other Tory MPs recently. After all he was Deputy Chief Whip and should be in a better position to defend himself. He is said…

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Tories drop to new low in Ipsos “fit to govern” tracker

Tories drop to new low in Ipsos “fit to govern” tracker

Getting worse numbers even than when Corbyn led LAB Of all the recent polling that has been published the above chart from Ipsos looks the most worrying for the Tories and not just the incumbent at number 10. For much of the past 12 years the Tories have always had the edge on this measure – yet look at it now. From a 46% rating at the time of GE2019 that has now slumped to just 21%. Even Labour during…

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What is it about Johnson’s Tory party at the moment?

What is it about Johnson’s Tory party at the moment?

The overnight news about the former Deputy Chief Whip, Christopher Pincher, is the latest story related to a Tory MP that has got people like me to be rushing to Wikipedia to find out what happened in his seat at GE2019. For the record, Pincher gained Tamworth from LAB at GE2010 and has increased his majority there at every election he has fought. At GE2019 he chalked up 66.3% of the vote and was 42.6% ahead of second place Labour….

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17% say BREXIT’s made life better – 45% say worse

17% say BREXIT’s made life better – 45% say worse

Ipsos has a reputation for developing the most interesting questions on which to poll and this late survey is no exception. Six years after the referendum has BREXIT made life better or worse? As can be seen the proportion of who think the UK’s exit from the EU has made their daily life worse has risen from three in ten in June 2021 to 45% now. Seven in ten of those who voted Remain feel this is the case, up…

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For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate

For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate

Whenever new polls come out we tend to look for just one figure and that is the Labour lead over the Conservatives.I would suggest that we are being too simplistic. The experience of the by-elections last week suggests that the next general election is going to see quite a bit more tactical voting against the Conservatives. Let us recall that Labour which had come second at the general election in the Tiverton and Honiton seat was reduced to losing its…

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